Florida
State Forecast:
“The Times They are a changing”
Chief D-7 Meteorologist Bob (Dylan) Wevodau
THE INTRO:
Remember the FSU games of old. The “I can’t believe we were still in it at half time game” of 1994. The Dq'well pick 6 to open up the game at the INFAMOUS 2003 FSU party at Fair Hope Ct!! All those brief moments where we were just trying to grasp something positive out of those games. Well as the opening quote implies, those days are gone. The aura that used to surround FSU is no longer visible. Maybe it’s that they can’t beat NC State and Clemson any more, or maybe it’s the 2004 game that’s stuck in our head, but for what ever reason I no longer go into the FSU game expecting to lose. In fact I think this game is very winnable. If we play like we have the last 2 years against them, there is no reason we can’t beat the Noles.
And what a win it would be if we could. We still have yet to play NC State which I believe is our biggest game of the year. But as we stand right now we are holding on to 4 wins. We need 2 more. Say we beat NC State, we would be 5-2 going into this game and a win would make us bowl eligible (and probably ranked) with still plenty of games left to play. Now say the unthinkable happens and we lose to NC State, we will still need to find 2 more wins this year and the FSU game would get us right back into the bowl picture. So needless to say this match up is HUGE.
And not only is this game a big one for the Terps. It falls at the end of October, the absolute peak of the tailgating season. So let’s check out how the weather will shape up for this one.
THE HISTORY:
The average high in College Park, MD for October 28st is 64 F° and the average low is 45 F°. The days of tee shirts and shorts are long gone. I just hope the bees get the memo. The record high for this date in College Park is 87 which occurred in 1919, and the record low was 27 which occurred in 1936. Neither of which I was around for.
THE FORECAST:
According to the Almanac the forecast looks a little closer to winter than it does fall. They are calling for some stormy weather with some wet snow falling over parts of New England (hopefully for Bix’s sake Boston isn’t one of those ‘parts’). This isn’t really that surprising since we have lucked out most of the season thus far. So maybe we are due for some conditions that are less than ideal. Anyway here’s is what I see happening on the 28th:
The forecast for the October 28, 2006 “J and Mary Anniversary Game” is for below average football weather. We will be on the chilly side with some chances of rain throughout the day. I am calling for the high to be around 58. The good news is that as of October 17th 2006, there has been no kick off time announced. ESPN has exercised it’s option for this one and we could play at 3:30 on ABC, 7:00 on ESPN, or 7:30 on the Duce. I’m thinking this isn’t quite good enough for the 3:30 ABC game, so hopefully we will play this one under the lights. If that were the case then our high would probably be closer to the low 50’s (hopefully cold enough to make the Nole’s uncomfortable). As the day turns into night we should see the 40’s, with the temperature bottoming out somewhere around 41 over night. I’ll put the chance of showers at 50% with clouds all day. Actually the more I think about it, the more I like this forecast for the FSU game.
I am most definitely issuing a jacket warning, and putting the poncho warning at yellow. You may not need it, but you most definitely need to have one handy, just in case.
This is our last game during daylight savings time, so say good by to the 6 pm or later sunsets and get ready to settle in for winter. The game day sunrise in College Park, MD on October 28st is for 7:30 am. The sunset is scheduled for 6:12 pm. As for the moon, it should be up around 1:48 PM on game day and should hang around through game time (whether it be 3:30 or later). The moon will be a waxing crescent with 35% illumination.
THE SNOW REPORT:
Well here we go. It seems like just yesterday I was doing the William and Mary Forecast, but here we are with a snow report for the Oct 28th FSU game. It has actually snowed on this date in College Park that’s great news for people like me who love the white stuff, but for those haters out there, take solace in the fact that the last snow fall on this date (only a trace amount by the way) occurred in 1953, the same year as our beloved Terps National Championship!! So though I am hoping for a 100% chance, we will have to settle for 1%. (So you’re saying there’s a chance).
Look here for further updates, as we get closer to game day.
THE CONTEST:
This could
work out perfectly this year. The final home game 3 days before Halloween
actually has a 66% chance of being a night game. Which makes this years pumpkin
carving contest extra special. Once again D7 will be hosting a pumpkin carving
contest for the best Maryland or Maryland vs FSU theme. Like last year there
will be prizes for all participants with the winner taking home the grand prize
(FYI I have no idea what the prizes will be so don’t bother asking). In
addition the contest should be wide open this year, since last years champ has
absolutely no idea what he is going to do.
THE CHARITY PLEA:
Don’t forget to save your loose change and stray bills to
donate to our “Save the Terrapin” fund. Remember with every $15 we raise we can
save/adopt one terrapin through the Terrapin Institute, which will be saved (by
being tagged) from commercial harve
st. All
“STT” progress will be monitored on the website. We are still at $115, but I am looking for the NC State to put us over our goal. Whatever we earn in the remaining tailgates is just icing on the Terrapin cake, and though we are nearing our goal, there are still Terrapins out there that are hoping we can save them as well, so don’t stop giving!
Look here for further updates, as we get closer to game day.
THE X-FACTOR:
Just to show you some extremes that could happen and have happened on this particular date in weather history.
- 1906 - A hurricane struck South Florida drowning 124 persons stranded in the Florida Keys. (David Ludlum)
- 1910 - Northeasterly winds as high as 70 mph (from a hurricane moving northward up the Florida peninsula) carried water out of Tampa Bay and the Hillsboro River. The water level lowered to nine feet below mean low water. Forty ships were grounded. (The Weather Channel)
- 1930 - A big early season lake effect snowburst on the lee shores of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario produced 47 inches at Governeur NY and 48 inches just south of Buffalo. (David Ludlum)
- 1987 - Thunderstorms in northeastern Texas produced golf ball size hail at Atlanta, along with wind gusts to 86 mph, and four inches of rain. Damage from the storm was estimated at more than a million dollars. Sunny and mild weather continued across much of the rest of the nation. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
- 1988 - Eight cities in the southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Red Bluff CA with a reading of 96 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)
- 1989 - Unseasonably cold air began to invade the central and eastern U.S. Light snow fell across northern Maine, and snow was also reported in the Great Lakes Region, including the Chicago area. Bismarck ND was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 9 degrees above zero. Five cities in Florida reported record high readings for the date, as temperatures warmed above 80 degrees. Miami FL reported a record high of 90 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)
***This is a disclaimer to remove all responsibility on myself if this forecast is wrong. Being that it is very difficult to predict the weather greater than 48 hours in advance, the odds of needing this disclaimer are about 100%. However I do believe this forecast will be pretty close to what we can actually look to expect.