UVA
Forecast:
“If ever we are going to win in Charlottesville, it’s now!”
Chief D-7 Meteorologist Bob Wevodau
THE INTRO:
Just a couple things, since no one will do it for me, I’ll have to pat my own back. Did you see that FIU Forecast? What a brilliant call. Anyway, it’s UVA time. The team that everyone loves to hate (you got to admit they make it easy to do!). UVA is struggling so far this year and has looked terrible in both their wins and their losses. That’s the good news, the bad news is that as we speak some guy in Charlottesville is probably at his computer writing the same sentence except replacing “UVA” with “Maryland”. So both programs are going to be hungry for this one, and UVA will have the advantage of playing at home. A place where Maryland has struggled.
Looking ahead the Terps have a bye and then a huge match up with Ga. Tech. After our FIU escape, I think we are most realistically looking at 3-2 coming into this one, but if we can manage to win one in Atlanta we would be 4-1 and looking very comfortable in our quest for a bowl berth. But either way this is one on the schedule we have GOT to win. It will be hard to scrape together 6 wins without getting one of them via the Hoo’s. I for one will be in Jamaica for this game, but for those who will be crossing the Potomac, here’s what we’re looking at (again, no game time announced as of yet).
THE HISTORY:
The average high in Charlottesville, VA for October 14th (Happy Birthday Dad!) is 70 F° and the average low is 47 F°. Yeah, it’s pretty much fall by now. The record high for this date in Charlottesville is 94 which occurred in 1954, and the record low was 29 which occurred in 1988 (ohhh now I’ll have something to write about in the snow section!!).
THE FORECAST:
No worries from the Almanac this week as the farmers are calling for pleasant weather. This makes my job a lot easier. We are going to go with:
The forecast for the October 14, 2006 “Chesapeake Classic” is for perfect football weather. This day is going to be absolutely beautiful. Blue skies and high clouds and hopefully plenty of Terrapin Offense will abound. Sure it will be a little breezy, but luckily for UVA not breezy enough to knock over anyone’s mimosa. Again, I am not calling for any rain, and we should see a high around 73F° by about 3:00 PM. The low will be 54 F°, and again, until we know the kick off time, I can’t tell you if this will be a factor or not. The only concern for football fans on this day will be for what’s happening on the field.
No poncho or sunscreen warnings or advisories this weekend (well maybe a sunscreen warning for me in Jamaica, but that’s my problem). If I was making the trip, I would seriously consider the D-7 long sleeve, with maybe a “Lights Out” T underneath for when it warms up. Also bring a light jacket, just to be safe.
The game day sunrise in Charlottesville, VA on October 14th is for 7:21 am. The sunset is scheduled for 6:37 pm so they days are really starting to shorten up quickly. As for the moon, it should be out around 12:00 AM Saturday morning/Friday night, and will set at 4:17 PM. It will be in it’s last quarter with 45% illumination. Not sure how visible it will be because my gut is calling for a noon kickoff.
THE SNOW REPORT:
Because the weather page I use to do these forecasts only gives very detailed info for Washington DC, I can’t say with any confidence that it has ever snowed on October 14th in Charlottesville, VA. Since the record low was 29F, there is certainly a chance, just not a very good one. I am going to say that the odds of snow happening on this day are .5%. I figure with a record low of 29, maybe once every 200 years it may happen.
Look here for further updates, as we get closer to game day.
THE CHARITY PLEA:
Don’t forget to save your loose change and stray bills to donate to our “Save the Terrapin” fund. Remember with every $15 we raise we can save/adopt one terrapin through the Terrapin Institute, which will be saved (by being tagged) from commercial harvest. All “STT” progress will be monitored on the website.
Due to all kinds of circumstances beyond our control, the Save the Terrapins collection tin did not make it to the FIU game. No fear though, we have saved over $115 so far and only need 35 more for our goal. I think we should easily surpass that on Homecoming.
Look here for further updates, as we get closer to game day.
THE X-FACTOR:
Just to show you some extremes that could happen and have happened on this particular date in weather history.
- 1957 - Floodwaters roared through a migrant labor camp near the town of Picacho AZ flooding fifty cabins and a dozen nearby homes. 250 migrant workers lost their shelters. The month was one of the wettest Octobers in Arizona weather history. (The Weather Channel)
- 1965 - Heavy rains hit the coastal areas of southeastern Florida. In a 24 hour period rains of twenty inches were reported from Deerfield Beach to Fort Lauderdale, with 25.28 inches on the Fort Lauderdale Bahia-Mar Yacht Basin. Flooding that resulted caused considerable damage to roads and streets. The rains inundated numerous newly planted vegetable fields, and some residences. Ten miles away just 4.51 inches of rain was reported. (14th- 15th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
- 1981 - Four days of heavy rain across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma came to an end. The heaviest rains fell in a band from southwest of Abilene TX to McAlester OK, with up to 26 inches reported north of Gainesville, in north central Texas. The heavy rains were the result of decaying Hurricane Norma, which also spawned thirteen tornadoes across the region. Seven deaths were attributed to the flooding. (Storm Data)
- 1984 - Dense fog contributed to a 118 vehicle accident on I-94, just south of Milwaukee WI. It was the seventh day of an eight day stretch of dense fog. At the time of the accident the visibility was reportedly close to zero. (Storm Data)
- 1987 - Sixteen cities, mostly in the Appalachain Region, reported record low temperatures for the date. Record lows included 43 degrees at Lake Charles LA, 35 degrees at Augusta GA, and 27 degrees at Asheville NC. Gale force winds buffeted the Carolina coast. Light snow fell across parts of Wyoming, Colorado, and western South Dakota. (The National Weather Summary)
- 1988 - Forty cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Elkins WV was the cold spot in the nation with a record low of 18 degrees above zero. Thunderstorms in Arizona drenched Phoenix with nine inches of rain in nine hours, the fifth highest total for any given day in ninety-two years of records. Carefree AZ was soaked with two inches of rain. You see I don’t just make these record lows up in my head! (The National Weather Summary)
- 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather over Michigan during the morning, and over New York State and Connecticut during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms spawned two tornadoes, and there were ninety reports of large hail or damaging winds, including seventy reports of damaging winds in New York State. A tornado at McDonough NY killed one person and injured three other people. Strong thunderstorm winds gusted to 105 mph at Somerset. Temperatures warmed into the 80s and lower 90s over much of the nation east of the Rockies, with eleven cities reporting record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 81 degrees at Beckley WV and Bluefield WV equalled October records. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
***This is a disclaimer to remove all responsibility on myself if this forecast is wrong. Being that it is very difficult to predict the weather greater than 48 hours in advance, the odds of needing this disclaimer are about 100%. However I do believe this forecast will be pretty close to what we can actually look to expect.