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Virginia Forest Forecast:                                                                                        

“SWM ISO of SWM, must love horseback rides and orange feathers”

                                                            -The Cavalier

THE INTRO: 

This one scares me.  Not in the conventional “we are going to have a tough time winning this game” but in the “Oh my god, losing this game is not an option way”.  On paper, I think we win this 8 times out of 10, maybe 9 since UVA struggles in College Park, but what happens if we hit that 1 in 10, or 2 in 10 chance?  We are pretty much sunk.  In all honesty this game represents our bowl chance.  We lose to UVA at home, there will be no bowl in 2007, and quite frankly there shouldn’t be if we lose.

Right now we are 2-2, and waiting to go in to Rutgers.  If we lose to Rutgers we are 2-3 with GT, UVA, Clemson, UNC, BC, FSU, and NC State left to play.  I see 3 probable wins in there; UVA, UNC, and NC State.  Now they aren’t slam dunks, but if we can win those three then that gives us 5 wins.  Perhaps we can also beat GT who has played sloppy lately, and maybe we can catch Clemson, BC, or FSU on a bad day, but I wouldn’t want to absolutely have to beat any of those 3, so that gives us 3 winnables, and a true swing game in GT.  However, losing to UVA throws the whole equation out of whack, and there in lies the fear.

After dropping an embarrassing effort to Wyoming, UVA has played better.  Of course their wins have come against the likes of Duke, and UNC, but you really can’t discount the momentum that comes from winning a bunch of games in a row, despite the quality of the opponents.  Let’s face it, if I’m AD I’m scheduling Villanova, Syracuse, Duke, and UNC and hoping the 4-0 start can carry over, especially considering how slow Maryland is to get things going. A winning team starts believing in the system and each other, and that is why UVA is starting to concern me. 

And though I am a little frightened by the Wahoo’s I also have to remember, this game is in College Park.  Until last year, MD and UVA used to trade wins every other year.  Win at home, lose on the road, win at home, lose on the road…….  Quiet Frankly it was pretty boring and predictable.  This year however, we want the trend to continue and the Terps to once again come out victorious in CP.  The Terps were able to finally break through that glass ceiling in 2006, but let’s hope we haven’t lost that mental edge on the Cavaliers.

Now on to the weather.

THE HISTORY:

We’re back home in Byrd stadium and Lot 1 for this match up.  Not an exotic location that I so love doing forecasts for, but still it is nice to be back home in College Park.  The average high for College Park on October 20^th is 66 F and the average low is 48.  The kick off time is really going to factor into what we see from here on out.  A noon start will give the Tailgate a Green Bay vibe, while a 3:30 or 6:00 start won’t be nearly as bad.  The record high for this date in College Park is 86, set way back in 1969, and the record low is 31 back in 1972.  This of course means that I have to do a snow report, since frozen precipitation is actually a possibility, though a quite remote one at best. 

THE FORECAST:

I’ve been regretting doing this, but it appears I have little choice.  I have spent all fall hugging the averages as if I were a 2 year old and the averages were my mom and we were going into the ocean for the first time.  But it’s time to man up, grab the surf board and paddle out with reckless abandon.  The farmers almanac is basically taunting me into a forecast game of P.I.G. (or HORSE if you have more time)and who am I to turn them down.  The almanac is saying that there will be a chance of severe thunderstorms followed by a cold front.  I’m going to try and follow, it’s a tough forecast, but you have to admit it is going to have to rain on a Tailgate at least once this year.  So here we go:

The forecast for the October 20^th “Terps vs. the Poor Man’s Lone Ranger” is for rainy weather.  As is always the case, we don’t have a kickoff time yet, and as mentioned above, the kick off time is going to greatly factor into what we see weather wise, but for the entire day we will say over cast with a good chance of showers.  The high should be in the upper 50’s and because of the cloud cover the low should be somewhere close by as well, we’ll say low 50’s.  Given an early start time, the rain and clouds could benefit by keeping us a little warmer than usual, but still I don’t think anyone is hoping for rain. The winds should be about average with maybe a gust of two.  I’ll say 5-10 mph with a chance of a strong breeze here or there.  It won’t be the #1 weather story of the day, but you may notice it when a cup blows over.   So to recap, high 57, low 51, rain, slight breeze.  Sorry, I’m just the messenger on this one.

For this game we are going code Orange for the poncho warning.  This means you need to bring one and you will spend a considerable amount of time at some point wearing it.  Maybe not all day, but some time.   The good news is there is no Sun burn or Radio Active Leak warnings, so things could be worse. 

The game day sunrise for College Park, MD on October 20, 2007 is 7:22 AM, if this is a noon start that would mean almost ¼ of the tailgate would be in the dark!  The sunset for October 20^th is 6:23 which would mean a 3:30 start would finish under the lights. In August is seems like summer will never end, then before you know it is dark by 6pm! 

THE HURRICANE REPORT:

This is a terrible year to debut the Hurricane report, sure for those who live on the East Coast it been a great but come on, I’ve got to get some buzz going about this new feature.  Take one for the team you can always rebuild your beach front mansion.  Anyway because of the impotent 2007 Atlantic season I’m keeping the Hurricane Rank low. I will put it in the don’t worry section, but I’m going to put it high in there just because I have a feeling things could change come October, but still nothing to worry about.  Final verdict: 9. 

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THE SNOW REPORT:

Stupid historic low of 31, look what your making me do!  Well despite the potential for sub freezing weather on this date, it has never snowed in College Park on October 20^th.  I’m not a gambler, but if I was, I’d wager it probably won’t snow in College Park on this October 20^th either. 

THE CHARITY PLEA:

It’s taken about 13 forecasts, but I’ve finally pieced together that I do a charity recap in the Tailgate Recap, so this is just sort of repeating the same information over and over again, so I’m now removing this section from the forecast.  Why it was here to begin with, I’ve can’t really seem to remember.  So long little guys.  See you in the Tailgate recap.

THE X-FACTOR: 

Just to show you some extremes that could happen and have happened on this particular date in weather history. 

• 1770 - An exceedingly great storm struck eastern New England causing extensive coastal damage from Massachusetts to Maine, and the highest tide in 47 years. (David Ludlum)
• 1983 - Remnants of Pacific Hurricane Tico caused extensive flooding in central and south central Oklahoma. Oklahoma City set daily rainfall records with 1.45 inch on the 19th, and 6.28 inches on the 20th. (17th-21st) (The Weather Channel)
• 1987 - Cold arctic air invaded the Upper Midwest, and squalls in the Lake Superior snowbelt produced heavy snow in eastern Ashland County and northern Iron County of Wisconsin. Totals ranged up to 18 inches at Mellen. In the western U.S., the record high of 69 degrees at Seattle WA was their twenty-fifth of the year, their highest number of record highs for any given year. Bakersfield CA reported a record 146 days in a row with daily highs 80 degrees or above. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
• 1988 - Unseasonably warm weather continued in the western U.S. In California, afternoon highs of 96 degrees at Redding and Red Bluff were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)
• 1989 - Forty-nine cities reported record low temperatures for the date as readings dipped into the 20s and 30s across much of the south central and southeastern U.S. Lows of 32 degrees at Lake Charles LA and 42 degrees at Lakeland FL were records for October, and Little Rock AR reported their earliest freeze of record. Snow blanketed the higher elevations of Georgia and the Carolinas. Melbourne FL dipped to 47 degrees shortly before midnight to surpass the record low established that morning. Showers and thunderstorms brought heavy rain to parts of the northeastern U.S. Autumn leaves on the ground clogged drains and ditches causing flooding. Up to 4.10 inches of rain soaked southern Vermont in three days. Flood waters washed 600 feet of railroad track, resulting in a train derailment. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data

***This is a disclaimer to remove all responsibility on myself if this forecast is wrong.  Being that it is very difficult to predict the weather greater than 48 hours in advance, the odds of needing this disclaimer are about 100%.  However I do believe this forecast will be pretty close to what we can actually look to expect.