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UNC Forest Forecast:                                                                                        

“There are two theories behind the Nickname ‘Tar Heels’, one is that the NC soldiers fought so hard in the Civil War they held their ground as if they were stuck there with tar, the other theory is that their commanders had to dip their feet in tar to keep them from running away.  I know which theory I subscribe to.  Afterall North Carolina IS 1^st in Flight”

                                                            -Bob W.

THE INTRO: 

This is our first game after Coin Flip October, and let’s be frank here, this is one we are expected to win.  We still have UVA and Clemson to play before hand, but if you want to make any noise in the ACC you have to go into UNC and win, you just have to.  I know they have been playing a lot better lately, especially at home, but they are 2-5.  By the time we face them they may be eliminated from bowl competition which could be a good thing, or could be bad.

When we play NC State to end the year, I am hoping they are no longer bowl eligible.  Though they have loyal fans, an NC State team with nothing left to play for over Thanksgiving Break could very well be as close to a neutral field as we’ll play in the ACC.  But I don’t think this theory works very well against UNC.  If UNC is eliminated from post season play, they are going to come at us as if they have nothing to lose.  They are young and they are improving and I can see them playing with a huge chip on their shoulder looking to knock us off.  So the Terps are going to have to be ready.  This won’t be your normal game versus a Coastal Division bottom dweller. 

Another factor that makes this one so important is that we play Boston College the following week.  There could be a “Look ahead” factor at play here.  On the surface, I don’t really see BC as a look ahead game, but lets face it, by the time they come to College Park, the way things are going this year, they could be #1!  On the other hand with college football this year, I guess they could also no longer be ranked.  (Man this is crazy).  So if Maryland can run the table in October, we should have a pretty decent rank next to our name, and #1 (or 2,3, or 4 for that matter) traveling against another ranked team is going to get some national attention.  But we have to keep this out of our minds. 

The Tar Heels are a wounded animal.  We have to finish them off.  Usually when a team has nothing to lose (and still has a high morale) funny things can happen.  Lets hope there is no funny business come November 3^rd.  

THE HISTORY:

As the Great Willie Nelson sang, we are back “On the Road Again”.  It was a nice little home stand, but it’s time to do a forecast for a different location.  Though Chapel Hill is different than College Park, these North Carolina Forecasts aren’t near as fun to do as say some of our out of Conference ones, but still it must be done.  So let’s get to it.  The average high in Chapel Hill, NC for November 3^rd is 70.  The average low is 42.  Forty two seems pretty low to me, but I keep forgetting we are into November now with the forecasts, where does the time go?  The record high for CHNC is 86 set back in 1974, and the record low is 26 set back in 1954.  There obviously is no kickoff time yet, but this one has “Nooner” written all over it.  And let’s face it, if you are going on the road, you want the earliest start time possible. 

THE FORECAST:

I heard on the radio this morning that Washington DC has gone 35 days without rain.  Maybe I should stop predicting it?  Anyway, after reading the Almanac’s forecast, as well as constantly seeing news about the current drought in the Southeast, it looks as though we will not see any rain for this match up.  In fact the Almanac says fair weather all up and down the east coast.  So when I get a forecast like this, I just simply hug the averages, and so far this method has gotten me most of my A’s for the year. So here we go:

The forecast for the November 3^rd “Terps vs. Male Sheep” game  is for a rather typical fall day.  Actually it will be down right pleasant.  The high should be in the low 70’s, well say 71.  The low should be in the mid 40’s, we’ll say 45.  Keep in mind though, if we do get that noon start, tailgating is going to be in the 40’s to 50’s to start, so be prepared.  I see a lot of blue sky for this one with an occasional cloud here and there.  The breeze is always present in the fall, but I don’t think it will be too bad.  I’ll put it in the 5-10 mph range.  So overall I’m saying High 71, Low 45, sunny, with just a little breeze.  In fact just doing this forecast I’m a little jealous of those who have tickets. 

For this game we are going code Yellow for the sunscreen warning. I know it sounds crazy to have a sunscreen warning in November, but we are in North Carolina and believe me, last time I went down there, they put the visiting fans directly facing the sun.  It sucked.  The worse part is that you had to look across the field at all the UNC fans enjoying the shade!  So 70 is probably going to feel more like 80.  Of course if we get a 3:30 start, this whole paragraph is a mute point.     

The game day sunrise for Chapel Hill, NC on November 3, 2007 is 7:40 AM.  I say this every year, but not only are the NC schools further south than us, but they are surprisingly a lot more to the west than you’d think.  That is why we lose 10 minutes from the Clemson sun rise to the UNC one.  On the reverse side is the sunset.  We go from 6:13 for Clemson to 6:18 for UNC. 

As for the moon, this guy is all over the place.  He will rise at 1:43 AM, and then set by 3:17 PM so you probably won’t see much of him.  When he’s out it will be pretty sunny, and when it’s dark, he’ll be long gone.  Since you won’t see him, I’ll go ahead and let you know…

***********************SPOILER ALERT!!!!!********************

He will be a waning cresent with 20% illumination.  End Spoiler Alert. 

THE HURRICANE REPORT:

I don’t get it, what is this world coming to?  Al Gore gets the Nobel Peace Prize by producing a movie on Global Warming with a cover that features a hurricane coming out of a factory smokestack?  Sure Katrina was a big Hurricane, but it wasn’t caused by man?  Sure the planet may be increasing in Temperature, and warmer oceans will produce more hurricanes but it isn’t that black and white.  Warmer oceans will also create faster winds in the upper atmosphere making it more difficult for storms to form.  You could actually make a case that Katrina formed DESPITE global warming not because of it.  But lets not let scientific research get in the way of a good DVD cover.  Anyway because all the Atlantic Basin Storms north of the Caribbean are being blown to bits by upper level winds this year, I am putting the ranking at 3.  It would be one in College Park, but since NC gets a lot more Hurricanes, we are going with 3.  Still nothing to be concerned with.

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THE SNOW REPORT:

The problem I have with the snow report is that when I look at smaller cities, the website I use does not give snow history for that date.  It does for College Park, but I can’t get it to show me for away games.  So I’m just going to look at College Park and draw my own conclusion.  Based on the record low, snow is certainly possible, but since there is no snow on record for CP that day, I’m guessing we won’t see any in Chapel Hill either.  Interestingly enough, the record low for College Park for November 3^rd is only 29 which is 3 degrees warmer than CH’s record low.   Regardless the snow threat is zero.  The wait for our first Maryland Football Snow game continues….

THE X-FACTOR: 

Just to show you some extremes that could happen and have happened on this particular date in weather history. 

• 1890 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, reached 96 degrees, a November record for 76 years. (David Ludlum)
• 1927 - Somerset VT was deluged with 8.77 inches of rain to establish a 24 hour record for the state. (3rd-4th) (The Weather Channel)
• 1961 - A rare November thunderstorm produced snow at Casper, WY. (3rd-4th) (The Weather Channel)
• 1987 - Twenty-one cities, mostly in the Ohio Valley, reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Columbus OH was their warmest reading of record for so late in the season. Showers and thundershowers associated with a tropical depression south of Florida produced 4.28 inches of rain at Clewiston in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
• 1988 - A sharp cold front brought about an abrupt end to "Indian Summer" in the north central U.S. Up to a foot of snow blanketed Yellowstone Park WY, and winds in the mountains near the Washoe Valley of southeastern Wyoming gusted to 78 mph. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the south central U.S. Del Rio TX tied Laredo TX and McAllen TX for honors as the hot spot in the nation with a record warm afternoon high of 91 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
• 1989 - Cold weather prevailed in the central U.S. Six cities in Texas, Minnesota, and Michigan, reported record low temperatures for the date. The low of 7 above zero at Marquette MI was their coldest reading of record for so early in the season. (The National Weather Summary)

***This is a disclaimer to remove all responsibility on myself if this forecast is wrong.  Being that it is very difficult to predict the weather greater than 48 hours in advance, the odds of needing this disclaimer are about 100%.  However I do believe this forecast will be pretty close to what we can actually look to expect.