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Wake Forest Forecast:                                                                                        

“You know, they have surgeries now days that can fix that chin up for you”

                                                            -Bob W.

THE INTRO: 

When you look at the 2006 Maryland Terrapins and what they accomplished, one of the things you may notice is that we overachieved.  You can say what you want about our accomplishments, but to finish with a 9-4 record while scoring the same amount of points for the year as you gave up, it shows that an awful lot of things had to go right in order to get those 9 wins.  Ralph Friedgen said after the season that in many of the games Maryland won, there was a moment where one team would have a chance to win the game, where the outcome rested solely on will power, and in a majority of those instances the Terps came through, and that is why they won 9 games.  Well this Wake game is pretty much the same deal.  This is a toss up game that can go either way.  It is not going to be easy, but it is certainly doable.  And we are going to find out a hell of a lot about what kind of football team we have.

Looking at the schedule this one really sticks out.  We all know we have a tough row to hoe, but assuming we beat FIU this weekend, and assuming we lose to WVU, and then Rutgers at the end of the month, this game will determine whether we get out of September 3-2 or 2-3.  I’d take 3-2.  That keeps us in bowl contention and more importantly gives us a 1-0 record in the Atlantic Division, but 2-3 and we pretty much fall off the College Football radar.  They’ll throw us a bunch of 12:00 October starts and only show the final score on ESPN, sans highlights.  So this one is very big.  I certainly have not abandoned hope in those other games, and if we were to beat either WVU or Rutgers, then this would give us a chance to go 4-1 in September and be well on our way to a top 25 ranking.  But before we get to 4 wins, we have to get #3, and Wake will be standing in our way for that one.

So no matter what happens in the rest of the month, this is the key game.  The one we need to win.  Not only will it boast our chances in Atlantic Division it will give Wake it’s 2^nd division loss, with Clemson, and FSU still on their schedule.  So it’s going to come down to will power.  The 2006 team had it, does the 2007?  I certainly hope so because we are going to need it.

THE HISTORY:

Well we’re back in Winston Salem, NC.  The Terps will be heading about 300 miles southwest and 968 feet up (a general rule of thumb is that you lose 1 degree F for every 300 feet in elevation).  The average high in Winston Salem for September 22 is 74 and the average low is 57.  Yep, jacket weather is finally upon us.  The record high for WSNC is 90 which occurred back in 1970, and the record low is 40 which occurred in 1983.  If you’ll note the date of the records you will realize that both of those years are years in which the Orioles won the World Series.  Using this information I’ll go out on a limb and say September 22, 2007 won’t see any records broken!   

THE FORECAST:

I’m pissed right now.  The Farmers Almanac is totally screwing me over.  They have for their forecast that a Tropical Disturbance will bring rainy weather to the Southeast!  I can’t do a forecast based on that.  For one, according to the Almanac the Southeast is from NC west to TN and everything below and east of the Mississippi.  That is a lot of ground to cover and if a Tropical Disturbance hits Miami, or Biloxi, it won’t necessarily be affecting Winston Salem.  So I’m going to throw this one out.  That’s right.  I’m going to spit in the face of the Almanac, I’m going to bite the hand that feeds me.  If you are going to the Wake game and it rains and pours and is miserable, you know where to find me, but I have a job to do here, and as the D7 Weatherman, I have to use my gut.  Sure there have been some monster Hurricane’s this year, but they have really been tracking south.  So I’m calling BS on the Alamanc, sure if it has the Tropical disturbance card, flip it over and I’ll drink double, but I’m not buying it:

The forecast for the September 22 “Terps vs. the Big Jawed, Top Hat Wearing Freaks” is for fair weather.  We don’t have a kickoff time yet, but we should see a high in the mid to upper 70’s and a low around 60.  In the event of a morning kickoff, we’ll have to deal with some cool weather and it may be time to break out any Terp Sweatshirts you have in the closet.  Same goes for a night game, but make sure you have somewhere to put said sweatshirt being that the 9am-6pm hours will be quite comfortable.  As we move further into fall, I’m going to say we could get a little breeze for this one.  I’ll put the winds in the 10 mph zone, with a few gusts that could take a paper plate away.  Overall though a beautiful day with just a couple high clouds.  So to recap, I’m going with a high of 77, and a low of 60.  No rain.    

Though it shouldn’t be an issue, the sunny weather and wind could cause a little burning but it will be pretty mild.  As a result, I’m going to issue a code green sunburn warning.  It’s still a warning, but it’s the lowest possible level.  As for the rain, well who do you believe me or the Farmers Almanac?  If you are a true American, then there is no poncho warning.  If you’re an Al Qaeda loving commie, well then pack your poncho comrade!   

The game day sunrise in Winston Salem, NC on September 22^nd is for 7:08 am.  Based on game time you may or may not see this (assuming you are tailgating for 6 hours). The sunset will be around 7:18 PM which regardless of game time you should see (unless you tailgated really, REALLY hard at sunrise).  The moon will be a waxing gibbous that’s pretty damn near full.  For illumination I’ll say 90%.     

THE HURRICANE REPORT:

This is going to be tough.  I want to bump it up based on the Almanac forecast, but after trashing that the last 20 minutes, I really need to stick by my guns. Then again, it is about providing the most accurate weather for tailgate fans, not some vendetta, what to do what to do.  I think I will put the hurricane report at 10 (translation, screw the tailgaters, this is a Forecast Off between me and the Farmers Almanac….Almanac, consider yourself served!):

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Look here for further updates, as we get closer to game day.

THE CHARITY PLEA:

Well were are back with “The Save the Terrapin” Charity.  I’m fine with that, we seemed to have built up a solid relationship and who can say no to the little guys on the right?  After only playing 2 gambling games the entire first tailgate, we still have raised 37$.  A great start all things considered.  Last year we were able to raise $300 and so far so good.  Sure if you project 37$ out over 6 home games we are short, but if you project out 18$ for every game played, well then we should easily surpass last year’s total of $300.  

THE X-FACTOR: 

Just to show you some extremes that could happen and have happened on this particular date in weather history. 

• 1890 - A severe hailstorm struck Strawberry, AZ. Fives days after the storm hail still lay in drifts 12 to 18 inches deep. (The Weather Channel)
• 1913 - Des Moines, IA, experienced their earliest freeze of record. (The Weather Channel)
• 1961 - Hurricane Esther made a near complete circle south of Cape Cod. The hurricane then passed over Cape Cod and hit Maine. Its energy was largely spent over the North Atlantic Ocean, however, heavy rains over Maine resulted in widespread local flooding of cellars, low roads, and underpasses. (David Ludlum)
• 1983 - Forty-one cities reported record cold temperatures during the morning. Houston, TX, hit 50 degrees, and Williston ND plunged to 19 degrees. (The Weather Channel)
• 1987 - Hurricane Emily, the first hurricane to roam the Carribean in nearly six years, made landfall over the Dominican Republic late in the day, packing 125 mph winds. Emily killed three persons and caused thirty million dollars damage. A record high of 92 degrees at Miami FL was their fifth in a row. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
• 1988 - An early morning thunderstorm produced baseball size hail at Plainview, in Hale County TX. Late in the evening more thunderstorms in the Southern High Plains Region produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Plainview TX and Crosby TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
• 1989 - Hurricane Hugo quickly lost strength over South Carolina, but still was a tropical storm as it crossed into North Carolina, just west of Charlotte, at about 7 AM. Winds around Charlotte reached 69 mph, with gusts to 99 mph. Eighty percent of the power was knocked out to Charlotte and Mecklenburg County. Property damage in North Carolina was 210 million dollars, and damage to crops was 97 million dollars. The strongest storm surge occurred along the southern coast shortly after midnight, reaching nine feet above sea level at ocean Isle and Sunset Beach. Hugo killed one person and injured fifteen others in North Carolina. Strong northwesterly winds ushered unseasonably cold air into the north central U.S., in time for the official start of autumn, at 8:20 PM (CDT). Squalls produced light snow in northern Wisconsin. Winds in Wisconsin gusted to 52 mph at Rhinelander. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

***This is a disclaimer to remove all responsibility on myself if this forecast is wrong.  Being that it is very difficult to predict the weather greater than 48 hours in advance, the odds of needing this disclaimer are about 100%.  However I do believe this forecast will be pretty close to what we can actually look to expect.