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West Virginia Forecast

“West Virginia, the state that betrayed the South”

            -Bob W (on what WV’s new state motto should be)

THE INTRO:

Here it is boys.  Thursday night West Virginia in College Park.  And if those 7 words don’t get you fired up, look at it this way.  This game is for all that is good in College Football.  We have an honest to God chance to make West Virginia go away.  If we can somehow end our skid against them, we will not have to hear anyone talk about WVU for the National Championship for, worst case scenario: 10 weeks, best case scenario: NEVER AGAIN!  We are not going to be the favorites going in, and I’ll admit, I’m a little nervous for this one, but if we can somehow come out on top, it will instantaneously stop WVU’s national title hopes.   It will shut up the thousands of WVU fans who think they are god’s gift to College Football, who forget that they have given the world such role models as Pac Man Jones, and that they attend a University that only has a passing interest in anything having to do with academics. 

And another thing (you can tell I’m getting angrier and angrier as I type this) what the hell is the Big East Conference anyway?  They have 16 schools, but not all of them play football.  For example Villanova, they are in the Big East for basketball, but not football?  How do you pick and choose?  If you’re school isn’t good in Football you can’t just kick them out and then invite them back for Basketball!!  If that were the case we’d of gotten rid of Duke Football years ago, but that isn’t right.  Even they have a God given right to try and build up a football program equal to everyone else in the ACC.  I swear the Big East’s “Tradition” only goes a week at a time, and what is College Football without Tradition??

We have got to win this one for the ACC.  And that is what really pisses me off.  Maryland has to play it’s regular season ACC schedule and then two out of conference games against two of the top 3 Big East Schools.  Now I don’t mind doing that, but if we were to lose to both WVU and Rutgers, which isn’t out of the question, these schools are going to hold this up as an example of how the Big East is better than the ACC and the sacred soil of the states that makes up our beloved Conference.  And take heed SEC fans because the same thing is going to happen to you when (not if) WVU beats Mississippi State later on in the year.  You can’t throw the 5 ranked team in a BCS Conferences Division against the top teams in a BCS conference, have them lose and then draw a conclusion that WVU would win the ACC or SEC.  But you watch, they’ll do it. 

The image above is the Confederate Battle Flag of the 1st Maryland Regiment CSA, to serve as a reminder that our beloved State was held out of the Confederacy, while West Virginia fought to get out of it.  Let’s win this one for the ACC, heck let’s win this one for the SEC too, and lets remind West Virginia that they have no place in a Southern Football Conference, and no place in National Championship conversations. 

 Now on to the weather, I think this is what this article is supposed to be about.  I got a little flustered there.

 THE HISTORY:

Well we are back in College Park for this one, and this one falls smack dab in the middle of September.  This is sort of a transition time in Maryland, it can go either way, early fall or late summer.  Quite frankly I’m hoping for early fall, but let’s see what is typical this time of year.  The average high in College Park for September 13^th is 80 degrees.  The average low is 63.  Those are both pretty ideal. The record high for the date is 94 which occurred back in 1925, and the record low is 44 which occurred back in 1917 (back when WWII was just a glimmer in WWI’s eye). 

 THE FORECAST:

This is one of those forecasts where you turn to the Farmer’s Almanac for some great insight (did I just seriously say that) and all you get is a one word forecast… “Fair”.  Well when in doubt, play the averages:

 The forecast for the “Terps vs. Pac Man Jones University” is for fair weather.  We’ve been blessed with an ESPN Nationally Televised game, which means tailgating will be starting according to Debbie Yow at 3:30.  Of course D-7 tailgating will be starting at 1:00 even if it has to be at the College Park Presbyterian Church Parking Lot (Jesus loves drinking games, why don’t the University Police?).  We’ll look for a high around 80 degrees, I’ll make it officially 83.  As the tailgate fades into twilight we should see temperatures in the mid to low 70’s for kickoff.  The low won’t be too much of an issue due to the start time, but after the game is over, look for temperatures to dip down to about 61 degrees. The weather should be sunny with just a few passing clouds.  Breeze could be an issue as it is with any September day, but I see the breeze staying within the 5-10 mph range.  So to summarize, high 83, Low 61, passing clouds but mostly sunny.  No rain.

 There will be a code yellow sun burn watch.  The weather will nice and sun burn will definitely be a possibility, but since we are beginning tailgating at 1:00, at which point the sun has already started to go back down, we should only have enough burn potential for a code yellow.  Be prepared, but don’t let it worry you.

 The Game Day sunrise is 6:47 am, which is just a few minutes before I’ll be at work that day.  The sunset will be at 7:20 which will be a half hour or so before kickoff.  If you are looking to stumble home with some help from the moon light, you may be in trouble.  The moon will rise at 8:47 AM and then set around 8:05 PM.  It will be a waxing crescent with only about 5% illumination, so even if it was still out, it wouldn’t have been much help anyway. 

 THE PRECIP:

The record rain for this day is 2.30” which occurred in 1944.  That would pretty much give us a repeat of the 2005 Temple game!

THE HURRICANE REPORT:

Well we have a very interesting Hurricane Report. The ole gut says not to worry about it, and set the ranking in the single digits, but the Farmers Almanac disagrees.  They did not forecast trouble on the 13^th, but the forecast for September 8-11 is for a Hurricane Threat to the Mid-Atlantic.  I feel as my duty as the official tailgate weatherman, it is only fair to point this out.  And as much as I’d like to set the scale to 6 or 7, I’m going to go with a 19.  If that number doesn’t mean anything to you, see chart below:

THE CHARITY PLEA:

Again, not much to add here since as I’m writing this we still haven’t adopted a charity for the 2007 season.  But look for that to change pretty soon.  In the mean time look at this picture of a baby Terrapin. 

 Just a reminder, our total raised last year was $300.

 THE X-FACTOR:

Just to show you some extremes that could happen and have happened on this particular date in weather history.

• 1922 - The temperature at El Azizia in Libyia soared to 136 degrees to estbalish a world record. To make matters worse, a severe ghibi (dust storm) was in progress. (The Weather Channel)
• 1928 - Hurricane San Felipe crossed Puerto Rico resulting in the highest winds, the heaviest rains, and the greatest destruction in years. The hurricane produced much damage in the Virgin Islands, and later hit the Bahamas and Florida. (David Ludlum)
• 1984 - Hurricane Diana, after making a complete loop off the Carolina coast, made landfall and moved across eastern North Carolina. Diana deluged Cape Fear with more than eighteen inches of rain, and caused 78 million dollars damage in North Carolina. (Storm Data)
• 1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the northeastern U.S. Flooding was reported in Vermont, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Greenwood NY received 6.37 inches of rain. A dike along a creek at Prattsburg NY gave way and a two million dollar onion crop left on the ground to dry was washed away. The prolonged rains in the eastern U.S. finally came to an end late in the day as a cold front began to push the warm and humid airmass out to sea. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
• 1988 - Hurricane Gilbert smashed into the Cayman Islands, and as it headed for the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico strenghtened into a monster hurricane, packing winds of 175 mph. The barometric pressure at the center of Gilbert reached 26.13 inches (888 mb), an all-time record for any hurricane in the Carribean, Gulf of Mexico, or the Atlantic Ocean. Gilbert covered much of the Gulf of Mexico, producing rain as far away as the Florida Keys. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
• 1989 - Unseasonably cool weather prevailed over the Central Plains Region, with a record low of 29 degrees at North Platte NE. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the Pacific Northwest, with a record high of 96 degrees at Eugene OR. Thunderstorms over south Texas produced wind gusts to 69 mph at Del Rio, and two inches of rain in two hours. (National Weather Summary)

***This is a disclaimer to remove all responsibility on myself if this forecast is wrong.  Being that it is very difficult to predict the weather greater than 48 hours in advance; the odds of needing this disclaimer are about 100%.  However, I do believe this forecast will be pretty close to what we can actually look to expect.