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Eastern Michigan Forecast:                                                                                        

“How is the Eastern Michigan University mascot NOT an EMU?"

                                                                        -Bob W.

THE INTRO: 

This season is really sneaking up on me.  I wrote all the forecasts up to the Cal game and thought I had some time to relax, but now the Delaware game is upon us and my free time is going to begin being used to do the game and tailgate recaps.  So I had better get this one done while I still can.

Anyway, there isn’t too much you can say about this game that I haven’t said in the other forecasts.  We don’t have the luxury to screw around with these small schools and as we know all too well, these directional schools can stand toe to toe with the BCS schools now days.  So to over look Eastern Michigan would be incredibly naïve and stupid (Is that sentence redundant? Eh who cares this isn’t an English Paper). 

With that being said though, when you look at our schedule you have to think this is our most winnable game.  I know we will beat Delaware, but I’m just worried they are going to really be fired up for our game since we are a regional rival that they would love to knock off (like they did to Navy a few years back).  The MTSU game worries me because it’s on the road and that’s about it for our “easy” games, since we don’t play Duke this year.  So this is a must win, especially with a trip to Death Valley looming the following weekend.  So again you hate to say it, but this is a big game, as funny as it sounds.

Now I admit, I don’t know much about Eastern Michigan, in fact I had to look up their mascot to just to be sure.  By the way, nice choice of a nickname, what was “Tigers” and “Bulldogs” just not generic enough for you?  But we all know that these MAC teams must be taken seriously, they all play as if there was a chip on their shoulder and can you blame them?  This will also be a key game because it is our last remaining game before ACC play.  We need to have the QB situation rock solid by this time, and if it isn’t we need this game to make sure it is at least less in doubt than it was prior to the EMU Kick Off. 

So to laugh this one off is to really not see the big picture.  But enough football talk, let’s get to the tailgating weather. 

THE HISTORY:

Well we are just two days shy of the autumnal equinox, which for those of you who dropped out of grade school is the day that the sun shines directly over head on the equator.  So technically speaking this will be our last game of the summer.  Though fall may be just on the other side of the weekend, it doesn’t mean we are completely into the fall weather pattern, in fact it usually takes some time for the weather patterns to catch up to the seasons.  (Hence the hottest days of Summer aren’t on June 21^st, but usually occur into July and August).  So needless to say you may not necessarily need your flannel shirts just yet.  As for the history of September 20^th the average high for this date in College Park is 79 and the average low is 57.  The record high is 94 F which occurred during one of the most glorious falls of all time in 1983, and the record low is 38F which occurred in 1959. 

THE FORECAST:

This could very well be a monumental day in D7 Tailgate Weather History.  I have a new source which helps me predict long range precipitation probabilities.  I have also re-connected to the Farmers Almanac which I couldn’t seem to do last time.  So look for the forecast accuracy to really ramp up this season, though I must say we haven’t been doing to shabby in the past.  In fact I am stunned with how accurate some of last years forecasts turned out.  Granted some completely missed, but for predicting weather for a specific day that is more than 6 weeks off, we’ve done pretty well.  Anyway, that’s the good news, the bad new is that this new sight is saying that September 20^th is a part of the month where precipitation is more likely.  (They like to keep things vague!).  The Farmers Almanac also supports this forecast and adds that the temperatures will be slightly lower than average with chilly nights. So with that in mind here is the forecast:

The forecast for the September 20^th “Eastern Michigan vs. ALL of Maryland” Game is looking for some rather cool and dreary weather.  No not Fonzy cool, but autumn like cool.  For the high I’m going to put it in the low 70’s say 71F  and for the low I’m going to put it in the lower 60’s and go with 61F.  I would go lower, but the fact that it is raining will keep it from getting too cold.  I expect there to be some showers at some point in the day, I don’t think anything heavy, but it will be somewhat of a nuisance.  We don’t have a kickoff time for this one, but with the high and low so close to each other that shouldn’t really factor in too much. The winds will be slightly breezy with a couple gusts in the 5-10 mph range, but overall I don’t think the wind will be much of a story.  So to recap, high 71F, low 61F rain on and off throughout the day, slightly breezy.

CODE RED PONCHO- And there it is, the dreaded code red poncho alert.  If there is any saving grace, I kind of like wearing my poncho, it hardly ever gets used.   Fortunately that will be the only warning for this day.

The game day sunrise for College Park, MD on September 20, 2008 is 6:53 AM.  The sunset should be around 7:07 PM.  Since we don’t have a kickoff time yet, I can’t really elaborate too much more on this section other than pointing out that we are just about to 12 hours of daylight and 12 hours of nighttime.  Looks like winter is setting in!

As for the moon, the moon will actually set at 1:03 PM, but don’t worry it’s just resting up.  It will be back at 10:16PM.  Of course Marathon will be closed by then so his loss.  The moon will be a waning gibbous with about 75% illumination.            

THE HURRICANE REPORT:

Man are things heating up in the Atlantic or what?  We are currently looking at Gustav which is heading toward the Gulf of Mexico and expected to become a major hurricane, and we also have Hannah in the Atlantic taking aim at the Bahama’s and Florida.  This is turning into some season.  Anyway because of this increased activity along with the fact the Mid September is the heart of Hurricane Season I’m going to raise the awareness factor to 24.  That could be our highest rating ever here at the weather desk.  Of course the weather desk wasn’t keeping track of all this when Isabelle hit. 

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THE SNOW REPORT:

Closed for the Season.

With the record low for the date being 38 F, no reason to open shop on the Snow Report.  But we are getting closer…….

THE X-FACTOR: 

Just to show you some extremes that could happen and have happened on this particular date in weather history. 

• 1845 - A tornado traveled 275 miles across Lake Ontario, New York and Lake Champlain. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
• 1926 - A hurricane which hit Miami, FL, on the 18th, pounded Pensacola with wind gusts to 152 mph. Winds raged in excess of 100 mph for four hours, and above 75 mph for 20 hours. (The Weather Channel)
• 1967 - Hurricane Beulah moved into South Texas, and torrential rains from the hurricane turned the rich agricultural areas of South Texas into a large lake. Hurricane Beulah also spawned a record 115 tornadoes. (David Ludlum)
• 1983 - The temperature at West Yellowstone MT plunged to six degrees below zero, while the temperature at San Francisco CA soared to 94 degrees. (The Weather Channel)
• 1987 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Oklahoma and west Texas. In Oklahoma, a thunderstorm at Seiling produced three inches of rain in one hour, golf ball size hail, and wind gusts to 60 mph which collapsed a tent at the state fair injuring nine persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
• 1988 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in central Wyoming, and snow in some of the higher elevations. Casper WY reported 1.75 inches of rain in 24 hours, and a thunderstorm north of the Wild Horse Reservoir produced 1.90 inches of rain in just forty minutes.
• 1989 - Hugo jilted Iris. Hurricane Hugo churned toward the South Atlantic Coast, gradually regaining strength along the way. Tropical Storm Iris got too close to Hugo, and began to weaken. A cold front brought strong and gusty winds to the Great Basin and the Southern Plateau Region, with wind gusts to 44 mph reported at Kingman AZ. (The National Weather Summary)
• 2005 - Hurricane Rita tracked through the Florida Straits and just south of the Florida Keys. Winds were sustained at tropical storm force at Key West, where peak winds gusted to 76 mph.

***This is a disclaimer to remove all responsibility on myself if this forecast is wrong.  Being that it is very difficult to predict the weather greater than 48 hours in advance, the odds of needing this disclaimer are about 100%.  However I do believe this forecast will be pretty close to what we can actually look to expect.