Florida State Forecast:                                                                                        

“Free Shoes University, it’s still funny even after all these years!”

                                    -Bob W.

THE INTRO: 

Let me just start by saying I'm having a terrible year with these forecasts.  In fact if you are still reading these, well quite frankly thank you.  You could have given up on me a LONG time ago.  But I promise I'm still trying my best.  I'm just in a slump and can't get out of it.  I know what baseball players do to break their slump, but I'm not sure what weatherman do?  I'll have to Google it sometime, but I'm hoping it isn't anything like baseball.  Maybe it will even be something pleasant, like eating a bowl of ice cream.  Anyway I'm really wandering far from home now.  Let's get back to football.  I am hoping with all my might that somehow we can beat UNC (my good you'd think this was a basketball article with that sentence).  If so, we'll quite frankly GAME ON.  This one will be huge.  It is a night game, it is against Florida State, it is for a chance to win the Atlantic Division.  I mean come on, when camp opens up at the beginning of August, all we ever hope for is a game like this.  One of monumental significance on a cold...no FREEZING November night. 

 

The reason I changed that last sentence from cold to freezing really shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.  Don't get me wrong, I love wearing shorts to football games, and I'm not a big fan of freezing to death, but when we are playing Florida State, you have got to think that a game in the 30's would be slightly more beneficial to the kids who didn't spend their entire childhood playing in the shadows of palm trees.  So personal preference, and comfort aside, we need to think cold.  It's kind of the anti-Cal game really.  For that we wanted Hazy, Hot, and Humid, for this we want cold and uncomfortable.  And let's face it. Even if we do lose to UNC it doesn't really impact the significance of this game all that much.  I mean we still need to get as many wins as possible to insure that we aren't bowling in DC (though that would be pretty money on my travel budget!).  And if we were to lose at UNC we'd be 6-4, and no one wants to see 6-5.

 

We already have the nighttime start, now all we need is the UNC win, add in a little cold weather (ok a lot) and we have the makings of a Classic Evening.  Let's just hope it all fall together.

 

And speaking of weather, lets get into that factor right now.

THE HISTORY:

The last home game forecast of the year, not the last forecast thank God, but the last home one.  And these are always tough.  I can botch the Middle Tennessee State games, or the Clemson games when no one from D7 is going to be in attendance, but miss a home game and you have J in your face every 5 minutes reminding you of your error.  So let's try to finish up the "home" season strong.  The average high for November 22 is

a mere 53F and the average low is 34F.  So this basically tells us, freezing weather is not only a very realistic chance, but it is also probably likely.  So that's good news for our wish list.  The record high for this date is 75F which happened in 1991 and the record low is 17F which was set back in 1951.  So as you can see, you can kiss the 80 degree mark good bye until April.   
 

THE FORECAST:

The Farmers Almanac is calling for Rain followed by clearing for the weekend, but what does that mean, will it rain Friday and clear out by Sunday?  And my long range precipitation guide doesn't help either, it calls November 22nd a transition day which means it could be the beginning or the ending of a rainy period.  So once again I'm left helpless. I’m going to have to go out on my own for this one, but then again, maybe that is what I need to do in order to shake things up.  So let's get on to the forecast. 
 

The forecast for the "Semicles Game" (that is the combination of a Seminole and an icicle...you see the best jokes always need to be spelled out) is for average temperatures and clouds.  The clouds will have a duel effect of keeping the temperature reasonable in the evening, but also not allowing the day time to get too warm.  With that being said, the high should be around the upper 40's, we'll say 47, and the low should be in the upper 30's we'll say 36 F.  There is a small chance of rain that I can't ignore, but I'm hoping it will be finished before our 1:30 tailgate start.  1:30!!!  What the hell am I going to do until then.  We're going to have to find a pre-tailgate spot for this one. Anyway, I don't see the wind being too much of an issue, maybe a breeze here or there, but nothing you are going to write home about.  So to recap high 47, low 36, cloudy, chance of showers, slight breeze.   
 

I am not going to give out any particular warnings for this one, other than to say at night time it could get pretty cold, but let’s face it, you all are adults by now, if you can’t figure out that nighttime in November is a cold time of the year, well then this whole forecast thing is probably beyond you.  . 

The sun is getting up later and later these days.  It won't rise until

6:58 (imagine if we didn't have daylights savings time).  The sun set is for 4:48 which is about the halfway point of the tailgate.  Looks like Flip Cup Under the Lights!!   

.      
 

The moon will rise at 2:03 AM and then set at 1:53 in the afternoon, so for this game you probably won’t see it.  If you do catch a glimpse of it early in the day it will be a wanning crescent with about 25% illumination.  The classic C look. 

 

 

THE HURRICANE REPORT:

Well Cuba got hit by a late storm, but I wouldn’t worry about that.   It’s probably just God punishing them for being God-Less Communists.  
 
 

  

THE SNOW REPORT:

What do you know?  We have had snow on this day in College Park.  I didn’t get the year, but the amount was only trace.  For those who don’t know what that means please see the UNC forecast.  Despite having snow on this day, I still say we are a long shot for any on this occasion.  Though it would be a pretty sweet time to get some.  All the Florida kids would be thinking the world was ending. 

THE X-FACTOR: 

Just to show you some extremes that could happen and have happened on this particular date in weather history.  Not a very busy day weather wise!

• 1641 - An observer at Boston, MA, recorded a "great tempest of wind and rain from the southeast all night, as fierce as a hurricane, and thereupon followed the highest tide which we have seen since our arrival here". (David Ludlum)
• 1957 - Extremely destructive Santa Ana winds blew from Oxnard to San Diego and inland parts of southern California. The high winds produced a 28,000 acre brush fire on a 40-mile front west of Crystal Lake. People were ordered off streets in some areas due to flying debris. (21st-22nd) (The Weather Channel)
• 1987 - Eight cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Elkins, WV, reported a low of 5 degrees above zero. Gale force winds continued along the Northern Atlantic Coast. (The National Weather Summary)
• 1988 - Wet and windy weather prevailed across the western U.S., with heavy snow in some of the higher elevations. Winds gusted to 62 mph at Vedauwoo WY, and reached 75 mph at Tillamook OR. Shelter Cove CA was drenched with 4.37 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
• 1989 - Strong northerly winds produced squalls along the shore of Lake Michigan, with heavy snow in extreme southeastern Wisconsin. Milwaukee WI received nine inches of snow, and in Racine County there were more than one hundred automobile accidents. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 
 

***This is a disclaimer to remove all responsibility on myself if this forecast is wrong.  Being that it is very difficult to predict the weather greater than 48 hours in advance, the odds of needing this disclaimer are about 100%.  However I do believe this forecast will be pretty close to what we can actually look to expect.