Humanitarian
Bowl: “Boise Bound!”
THE INTRO:
I
have been dreaming of doing this forecast for the Humanitarian Bowl
since we began the D7 website, and I always thought I’d be pretty
excited when we finally got to play on the Smurf Turf, but I guess
because of how the season ended for us, I have to admit I’m kind of
disappointed to be doing this forecast. It just seems to me that when
Wake Forest lost to BC during our FSU tailgate, that the clock struck
midnight for the Maryland
season. And if this were indeed a fairytale, maybe there would be a
last minute reprisal, but we all know there is a reason why fairytales
were written…to take everyone’s mind off of the plaque. Anyway, the
word “fairytale” has no
business being in the same sentence as Maryland football
anyhow, and that’s where we are left. To deal with cold hard reality,
and unfortunately in this case, the reality of the situation is that the
Terps are going to a bowl, they don’t necessarily want to be going to.
And there in lies the trap.
I’ll never forget the Peach Bowl in 2002, we were up against the
Tennessee Vols in Atlanta. The whole Georgia Dome was covered in Orange
and the memories of Tee Martin and the 1998 National Championship
weren’t all that distant. But despite how many times they sang Rocky
Top before the game started, you couldn’t dismiss the fact that the
players weren’t happy to be there. And that lead to one of the most
improbably victories I’ve ever witnessed in my career as a Maryland fan,
the 30-3 butt kicking we laid down on them.
And for that very reason, that
is why I’m scared. I’m worried the team whom so recently was gunning
for a trip to Tampa to play in the ACC Championship isn’t going to be
jacked up to play in the bowl game with the 8th pick of ACC
schools. It could be like the Peach Bowl in reverse (except for the
fact that Boise won’t be crawling with fans decked out in red).
But I for one am happy about
this bowl. I made a promise to myself way back in school that if we
could just go to a bowl, any bowl, I’d be happy. We’ve gone from those
dismal days to now almost having a bowl to travel to every year, so I’m
not going to complain. But what also worries me is the match up.
Nevada is built to run, Maryland not really built to stop the run.
Nevada has everything to play for, Maryland not so much. You have to
wonder how the kids are going to react. After all, we only really won
one game on the road, and for 30 of those 60 minutes I was cussing our
ineptness. So we’ll see what transpires.
So with all of that behind us, let’s take a look at the weather. After all, the weather is why I’m so excited to be doing this forecast, not because we went from a chance at a BCS bowl to the Humanitarian Bowl.
THE HISTORY:
It’s no secret that Boise is
cold. I mean looking at a Map of the US, if you focus on where Maryland
is, and then put a thumb tack where Boise is, that thumbtack is so far
North and West that you can barely see it in your vision. So take that,
then throw in the fact that Maryland isn’t exactly Palm Springs this
time of year, and you don’t have to be Willard Scott to have a general
sense of what to expect. But what shock me the most about this forecast
wasn’t even the temperature. It was the length of day. You forget how
short the days get that far north. I don’t mean to tackle these
subjects out of order, but I’ll tell you now the length of day on
December 30th in Idaho is 8 hours and 59 minutes!
But we’ll touch on that later. For now were looking at what to historically expect. The average high in Boise for December 30th is 35 F. The average low is 22. The records, and here is where it gets a little scary, for this day is a high of 57 back in 1917 and a record low of -9F in 1990. Yikes. As a lifelong Marylander I know for a majority of the state, single digits is very rare. You take one of those days and take off another 20 degrees and we’ll I don’t think man was meant to live like that. So that could be a problem (I guess this is what we get for making those Cal kids play in the humidity back in September).
THE FORECAST:
The always vague Farmers
Almanac is calling for Fair weather, gee thanks guys, and the dry day’s
long range precipitation indicator mysteriously won’t work for this date
and location, however that isn’t necessarily a bad thing, that site has
been dragging me down all year. But the smart play here would be to
stick to the averages and not go with anything too extreme, and for some
part of this forecast I’m going to do that. But for those who know me,
you know I’ve waited soooo long for Maryland to play in a snow game, I
just have to predict it, I have to! I couldn’t look myself in the
mirror otherwise, so here goes:
The forecast for the "Oh the Humanitarian!" is for snowy weather.
I know, I predicted that one for BC and it was off, but what most people don’t realize is that it was only off by a day (thanks for the verification Bix). So I’m going to call for it again. The high temperature should be just below the average, I’ll say around 30F and the low will be in the lower20’s or 22F is you must have an exact figure. There will be snow showers throughout the day but I don’t think we will see any major accumulation. Perhaps an inch or two. The winds will be gentle to moderate say in the 5-10 mph range, but there could be an occasional gust or two. So to recap. High 30F Low 22, snow showers and a gentle to moderate breeze, and obviously there would be cloud cover for most of the day.
This will be a code RED “Wear your hat and Mittens” game. In fact I’d wear as much clothing as possible, just be sure not to sweat, wet clothes lose their ability to insulate and that’s where you get into trouble.
I mentioned it before but I’ll
say it again. This time of year days are short and nights are long in
Boise. The sunrise for December 30th
is for 8:18 am and the
sunset is for 5:17 pm. (the picture to your right was actually taken at
noon in Boise! OK not quite). These times are of course Mountain Time
which though I don’t know for 100%, I’d be willing to wage is one of the
least populated time zones in the US.
As
for the moon, you probably won’t see it anyway, but it will be a waxing
crescent with about 10% illumination, just a
little thicker than the picture
shown here. It will rise at 10:17 am and set at 8:34 pm.
THE ALTITUDE REPORT:
Let’s
face it, we don’t need a Hurricane Report in December, and we certainly
don’t need one in Idaho, so lets take a look at somet
hing
we do need. The altitude in Boise Idaho is just about 2,700 feet on the
nose. Not nearly as high as I would have thought, but not exactly sea
level. This puts Boise at about half the elevation of Denver (they
should go by the Half Mile High City!). To put this in a better
perspective, Oakland Maryland is at roughly 2,400 feet, and Backbone
Mountain (see picture at right) the highest point in the state is at
3,360 feet.
What I like to think about when
it comes to altitude is that for every 300 feet you go up from sea
level, you lose a degree. So Boise Idaho would be about 9 F colder than
a spot at an equal latitude at sea level. Of course that is over
simplifying the situation because if you were at the Ocean for example
that would have a huge affect on your local climate, but it’s a neat
rule of thumb.
THE
SNOW REPORT:
Let’s just say, the day I looked up the weather for Boise there was a chance of snow just about every day in the 7 day forecast. I wasn’t able to find the record snowfall for December 30th in Boise, but the point is, we are in the heart of snow season in Idaho for this one, so any precipitation that does fall, most likely will be in the form of the white stuff!
THE X-FACTOR:
Just to show you some extremes that could happen and have happened on this particular date in weather history.
- 1880 - The temperature at Charlotte, NC, plunged to an all-time record cold reading of 5 degrees below zero, a record which was equalled on the 21st of January in 1985. (The Weather Channel)
- 1917 - A great cold wave set many records in the northeastern U.S. The mercury plunged to 13 degrees below zero at New York City, and to 15 degrees below zero at Boston. Temperature readings dipped below zero at Boston five nights in a row. Berlin NH hit 44 degrees below zero in the "Great World War I Cold Wave", and Saint Johnsbury VT reached 43 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)
- 1933 - The temperature reached 50 degrees below zero at Bloomfield, VT. It was the coldest reading in modern records for New England. The temperature at Pittsburgh NH reached 44 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)
- 1955 - Anchorage, AK, reported an all-time record snow depth of 47 inches. (30th-1st) (The Weather Channel)
- 1987 - A storm in the western U.S. produced heavy snow in Utah, with 28 inches reported in the Mount Holly and Elk Meadows area. Strong winds prevailed ahead of a cold front in the central U.S. Winds gusted to 46 mph at Dodge City KS, and reached 80 mph at Ruidoso NM. Strong northerly winds, ushering arctic cold into the north central U.S., created blizzard conditions in western Minnesota and central and eastern South Dakota. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
- 1988 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. A week of subfreezing temperatures in southern California claimed the lives of five people. Redding CA was blanketed with four inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
- 1989 - Extreme cold continued across northern Maine. Milo ME was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 38 degrees below zero, and the low of 31 degrees below zero at Caribou ME was a December record for that location. Freezing rain spread across much of Lower Michigan, knocking out electrical power to 1.9 million customers in southeastern Lower Michigan. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
**This is a disclaimer to remove all responsibility on myself if this forecast is wrong. Being that it is very difficult to predict the weather greater than 48 hours in advance, the odds of needing this disclaimer are about 100%. However I do believe this forecast will be pretty close to what we can actually look to expect