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NC State Forecast: 

By Bob W.                                                                                      

“Oh Rise Ye Great Pumpkin!”

                                                                        -Linus

THE INTRO: 

I must admit, it is a little difficult to write this forecast.  I was on top of the world after we beat Clemson.  This was looking like our dream season, the schedule was basically set up so that the road to the Atlantic Division Title would run through College Park, but that is no longer the case.  Well I guess technically speaking that is still the case, I mean a win over Wake Forest would put us in the drivers seat, but while in that drivers seat we would have to be 100% perfect.  I don’t know about you, but after watching that UVA debacle, I don’t see this team running the table.

And I must hand it to UVA.  I mean when you play a rival, you want to rip your opponents heart out, stomp on it, and then shove it down their throat.  It is what all rivals aspire to do when they take the field.  Well congratulations UVA, that was a complete and utter ass whipping.  You didn’t just win the game, you sucked the soul out of every single person who has as much as a passing interest in Maryland football.  That is a rivals dream, and you all got to live it.  All I can do is tip my cap and try to move on.

In a way I can sympathize with ole Linus up above.  Every year, I think things will be different, that maybe this will be the season the Great Pumpkin arrives and ushers in a new era in Maryland Football, but every year while the USC’s, LSU’s, Florida’s, and Texas’s of the world go on to the BCS Halloween Party, I’m left out in the pumpkin patch wondering what I did wrong in the past 365 days to keep him away.  And every year we watch the same Charlie Brown Halloween Special and every year is that one moment where Linus is like “This is it, here comes the Giant Pumpkin” but as we all already know, it’s just Snoppy.  Well the Clemson game was our view of the pumpkin and the UVA game was just another prank played on us. 

Yes, I am Linus and all I can do is say to myself, as in the distance you can hear Alabama and PSU laughing and dancing to the music, is that maybe our one day will come.  That all those years standing out in the pumpkin patch will finally pay off in spades.  I mean it did happen in Basketball, but then again maybe that was our one moment and now it’s gone.  I hate to think that way, but many fans of other schools don’t even get that.  But when it comes to times like this, as the sun rises on another Great Pumpkin-less night is that maybe all the time we spent  running on nothing but blind faith will make it all the sweeter for when that day does arrive.  In the mean time that running on blind faith, well it’s pretty much all we can do.

Speaking of pumpkins, this NC State tailgate, if you haven’t figured out by now, is also the D7 Pumpkin Carving Contest.  We have luckily been blessed with a 3:30 start which at this time of year is basically a night game.  And as excited as I am for the Pumpkin Carving Contest to get here, I must admit, that I really have no idea what I am going to do for it.  But the good news is that this is pretty much the apex of college football weather.  Sure I like snow, but most people like to watch football in cool weather, not cold weather, and by the end of October we are starting to move closer to that fine line between a light jacket and a parka. 

Anyway back to the game for a second.  This NC State game is going to be interesting.  NC State seems to get a little better each week, so don’t be surprised if this one is a cat fight, and not the dog pile it looked like back in September.  Also this game is huge for other reasons.  If we can regroup and beat Wake, this is our Bowl Clincher.  If that were the case and we didn’t announce the pumpkin carving champion until after sunset, then my wild prediction of being Bowl Eligible before the Pumpkin Carving Contest can technically still come true.  So keep that in mind.  OK, now back to the weather.

THE HISTORY:

Wow how quickly things cool off, not to get a head of myself but the all time high on this date is 80F!  It wasn’t that long ago when I was predicting normal highs in the 80’s.  But by now we are past the autumnal equinox and well on our way to tilting away from the sun.  As not everyone knows, in the winter in the Northern Hemisphere we are actually closer to the sun in distance, but the reason it is so cold is because the tilt of the earth makes the energy from the sun have to pass through more of the atmosphere than when the sun is high in the sky.  Think of a nail going through a thin piece of wood, if you nail it straight in how much of the nail comes out the other side, a heck of a lot more than if you took a same size nail and nailed at an angle.  But enough of the science lesson, here is the history for October 25, 2008.  The average high in College Park, MD on October 25^th is 65F and the average low is 46F.  The record high for this date is 80F as mentioned before (1902) and the record low is 31F set in 1937.  The kick off is set for noon which means we will be dealing more with the daily high than the daily low, so that’s good news. 

THE FORECAST:

The Farmers Almanac is saying that we should have periods of rain the week of the NC State game followed by some cool weather.  The Almanac also says that the weather will be fair with most of the showers staying north of the Mason Dixon Line.  The Dry Day forecast says that there is an almost certain guarantee that it won’t rain on this day, so with all those optimistic outlooks, I am going to say that we should see clear weather.  That is good.  I don’t think rain would go well with the pumpkin carving contest.  For the temperature it sounds like most people think it will be on the cool side, and who am I to argue (if there’s anything I know it’s cool right?  Actually I guess that very sentence has probably contradicted my entire argument!).  So here is what we are looking at:

The forecast for the “I miss Chuck Amato” Game is calling for cool and clear weather.  The high should be on the cooler side in fact we may not even break the 60 F mark for this one.  I’ll go with 59F.  The low will be pretty cold with us possibly getting into the 30’s early in the morning, fortunately with our start time most of us will still be in our beds at that point.  The skies will be clear which will lead to some radiational cooling so I’m putting the low at a frigid 39F.  There is no chance of rain, and any clouds you see should be high and few and far in between.  As always in the fall I know one of these games is going to be very windy, this one could be it.  I don’t think it will be really windy, but there will be some gusting.  I say breezes in the 10-15 mph range.  Overall not a bad day, sure a little cooler, but what do you want in the last week of October? So to recap, High 59F Low 38, no rain and moderate breeze. 

I am going to issue a Code Yellow Breeze alert, which just means that once you have  flipped your cup over, just keep an eye on it so it doesn’t blow away. 

I am also issuing a Code Red jacket alert.  If you don’t have at least long sleeves on, you are crazy.  I’d go with sweatshirt and light jacket personally, but then again, what I know about fashion…well, it isn’t much (see D7’s photo section). 

The sunrise for this game is scheduled for 7:28 AM and the sun set is for 6:15 PM.  Which means that the 2^nd half will be played mostly under the lights, you gotta love that!    

As for the moon it will be rising at 4:06 AM and setting at 4:25 PM so you probably won’t see much of it.  If you did see it, and there is a good chance with few clouds out, it will be a waning crescent with about 15-20% illumination.   

THE HURRICANE REPORT:

I think it is about time to close up shop on another year of the Hurricane Report.  If we have learned anything since Isabelle it is that when I do a Hurricane Report, it keeps storms away from the Mid-Atlantic.  You’d think they’d give me a medal or something for that, wouldn’t you?  Oh well. The ranking is 2. 

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THE SNOW REPORT:

I definitely remember as a kid seeing flurries before Halloween when I was in High School.  Of course I grew up about as far north in Maryland as you could be, but I still believe.  But despite my claim, it has never snowed in College Park on this date.  I guess it is possible since it has been below 32 on this date, but the odds are STRONGLY against us.  But hey we are getting closer.    

THE X-FACTOR: 

Just to show you some extremes that could happen and have happened on this particular date in weather history. 

• 1921 - A hurricane with 100 mph winds hit Tampa, FL, causing several million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)
• 1977 - Dutch Harbor in Alaska reported a barometric pressure reading of 27.31 inches (925 millibars) to establish an all-time record for the state. (The Weather Channel)
• 1981 - A northbound tornado caused two million dollars damage to Bountstown, FL, in less than five minutes. Fortunately no deaths occurred along its six mile path, which was 30 to 100 yards in width. Radar at Apalachicola had no indication of a tornado or severe weather. (The Weather Channel)
• 1987 - A storm system moving across the Saint Lawrence Valley produced 40 to 50 mph winds east of Lake Ontario. High winds downed some trees around Watertown NY, and produced waves seven feet high between Henderson Harbor and Alexandria Bay. Mason City IA and Waterloo IA tied for honors as cold spot in the nation with record lows for the date of 19 degrees. Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma and northern Texas produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 65 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
• 1988 - Severe thunderstorms erupted over northeastern Texas during the late evening producing softball size hail at Newcastle and Jonesboro. Low pressure over James Bay in Canada continued to produced showers and gale force winds in the Great Lakes Region. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
• 1989 - Low pressure over Nevada produced high winds in the southwestern U.S., and spread heavy snow into Utah. Winds gusted to 63 mph at the Mojave Airport in southern California. Snowfall totals in Utah ranged up to 12 inches at Snowbird, with 11 inches at Alta. "Indian Summer" type weather continued in the central and eastern U.S. Twenty cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 77 degrees at Alpena MI and 81 degrees at Saint Cloud MN were the warmest of record for so late in the season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

***This is a disclaimer to remove all responsibility on myself if this forecast is wrong.  Being that it is very difficult to predict the weather greater than 48 hours in advance, the odds of needing this disclaimer are about 100%.  However I do believe this forecast will be pretty close to what we can actually look to expect.