Home
Up

UNC Forecast:                                                                                        

“You can't spell Trounce without unc.......or T, R, O, and E for that matter”

                                                                        -Bob W.

THE INTRO: 

Well things didn't exactly work out the way we intended in Virginia Tech, but that's all right.  When FSU fumbled the ball in the end zone and Georgia Tech recovered it to clinch the victory, it basically gave us a free pass in Blacksburg.  Now don't get me wrong, winning at VT would have been huge, it was in front of a National Audience and would have moved us higher in the standings and also allowed us to lose one of our

three remaining games.  But for as much as I tried to tell myself beforehand "Don't freak out if we lose, it's okay, don't freak out."  I was still pretty bummed to see the final score. 

Now to write about how up and down this team is would be a waste of time.  There isn't a single person who follows Maryland Football who doesn't already know that.  But

I just wish that if we were going to lose to VT it would have been a knock down drag out, we’re not going peacefully into the sunset struggle.  Not unlike the way Jaws ended.  However it wasn't meant to be.   And that of course means it is time to turn our attention to UNC. 

I really can't keep track of how many times I've said "this is the biggest game of the year for us", but I can't help it.  This has been a funny season.  I didn't use it to describe the VT game, and I believe I was correct in doing that, but unfortunately I have to break the phrase out one more time.  Let's face it.  UNC is playing some inspired football, and if we weren't in Byrd for this one, I think we'd be getting a decent amount of points from experts.  But with as much head scratching we've done as fans this year.  The only general statement you can make about the 2008 Maryland Football team, and be as close as you could be to being correct, is that we play better at home. 

Of course the way UNC has moved the ball on the ground we are most certainly going to have to play better at home, because our run defense has got to step it up.  UNC can come out and dictate this game if we aren't careful. And though you don't want to look any further than Saturday at 3:30 you can't help but realize that if we don't win this, our run at the Atlantic Division Crown is just about over.  And though we have made it much further into the season having title hopes than most of us really thought we would, I don't think any of us are ready to give up on that dream just yet. 

So with that being said, let's take a look at what the weather has in store for us in this CRUCIAL MATCH UP with the Sheep.  By the way, is the Tarheel Mascot a goat or a sheep?  I won’t tell you how much time I took contemplating that very issue.

THE HISTORY:

Well we are winding down the Tailgate season.  In fact there is only one more home game left after this.  I can’t believe how fast it goes.  But since we are winding down the season, that pretty much means we are gearing up for winter.  And as is such, the temperatures are going to be dropping.  The average high for November 15^th, is 58 and the average low is 40.  The records for this day are 83 for the high in 1993 (hey that isn’t so bad) and 20 way back in 1905. 

THE FORECAST:

I’m really hoping I can pull myself together here.  I have been struggling a lot lately and really need an A+ forecast to bring my average back up.  And it has got to be now!  The Farmers Almanac is calling for Fair weather (though it is also calling for snow a few days later).  And now my precipitation forecast is calling for November 15^th to be one of the riskiest day of the month for precipitation with a 55% chance.  These guys are killing me.  Of course we all know how well things turned out with the precip forecast before, so maybe it is time to go back to the Almanac.  This is going to be a really conflicting forecast.  But here we go.

The forecast for the “Heel Meal” Game is calling for average weather.  Now that’s a pretty vague statement but I think what we are going to see is highs around 60 and lows around 40.  We’ll say the high will be 59F and the low will be 39F.  There will not be any rain, but there will be a stiff breeze that may come into flip cup play.  The skies will be mostly clear but there will be some sun.  So overall were looking at a high of 59F, Low 39F, no rain, some clouds and moderate breeze. 

I don’t think there are any warnings for this one but keep in mind when the game ends it will be nighttime, so prepare for some cooler weather. 

The sunrise for this game is scheduled for 6:51 AM and the sun set is for 4:54 PM.  That’s almost halftime!  It’s hard to imagine the days getting much more shorter, but we still have 6 weeks of shortening days before we finally turn the corner.      

The moon will actually set first at 9:48 AM, and then come back out at 7:02 PM.  It will be full and I can after just going outside on Monday night, I can tell you it is most certainly getting close to full.  It was very bright out.

THE HURRICANE REPORT:

This is done, there could be another Atlantic Storm this year, but it won’t be in the Mid-Atlantic.  I now pronouce the Hurricane Report Closed for the season.  This segment has really been a bust, but then again, I guess that’s for the best. 

. 

           THE SNOW REPORT:

I thought for sure we would have some sort of record of snowfall on this day, but we don’t.  You would think with a record low of 20, that snow would not be entirely out of the question.  I guess not.  Anyway, we still have 2 more solid shots at snow this year, so don’t give up hope yet.  Obviously the BC game will give us a chance, but don’t sleep on the night time start for FSU, you never know.  And quite honestly if there is ever a game I want to see snow, I’d prefer to see the Seminoles standing on the opposite sideline. 

THE X-FACTOR: 

Just to show you some extremes that could happen and have happened on this particular date in weather history.  Boy there sure are a lot of Tornadoes on this day!!

• 1900 - A record lake-effect snowstorm at Watertown, NY, produced 45 inches in 24 hours. The storm total was 49 inches. (14th-15th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
• 1967 - A surprise snow and ice coating paralyzed Boston during the evening rush hour. (David Ludlum)
• 1987 - Thunderstorms spawned twenty-two tornadoes in eastern Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma. A tornado moving out of northeastern Texas killed one person and injured ninety-six others around Shreveport LA causing more than five million dollars damage. Tornadoes in Texas claimed ten lives, and injured 191 persons. A tornado caused more than nineteen million dollars damage around Palestine TX. Severe thunderstorms spawned eighteen tornadoes in Mississippi and seven in Georgia the next day, and thunderstorms in southeastern Texas produced wind gusts to 102 mph at Galveston, and wind gusts to 110 mph at Bay City, killing one person. There were a total of forty-nine tornadoes in the south central U.S. in two days. The tornadoes claimed eleven lives, injured 303 persons, and caused more than seventy million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
• 1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Oklahoma and northeastern Texas to northern Indiana and southern Wisconsin from mid morning through the pre-dawn hours of the following day. Thunderstorms spawned forty-four tornadoes, including thirteen in Missouri, and there were more than two hundred reports of large hail or damaging winds. A tornado in central Arkansas hit Scott and Lonoke killing five people, injuring sixty others, and causing fifteen million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
• 1988 - A tornado hit Southside, AR, killing one person, injuring ten others, and causing more than two million dollars damage, and a tornado near Clarksville AR injured nine persons and caused more than two million dollars damage. A tornado moving through the southwest part of Topeka KS injured twenty-two persons and caused nearly four million dollars damage. A tornado near Jane MO killed one person and injured twelve others, and a tornado moving across the southwest part of O'Fallon MO injured ten persons. Severe thunderstorms also produced hail three and a half inches in diameter east of Denison TX, and wind gusts to 85 mph at Kirksville MO. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
• 1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a powerful cold front began to produce severe weather in the Middle Mississippi Valley before sunrise, and by early the next morning thunderstorms had spawned seventeen tornadoes east of the Mississippi River, with a total of 350 reports of severe weather. There were one hundred reports of damaging winds in Georgia, and five tornadoes, and there were another four tornadoes in Alabama. Hardest hit was Huntsville AL where a violent tornado killed 21 persons, injured 463 others, and caused one hundred million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
• 1989 - Thunderstorms in Kentucky produced hail three inches in diameter in Grayson County, and wind gusts to 110 mph at Flaherty. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the eastern U.S. through the morning and afternoon hours. Severe thunderstorms spawned 23 tornadoes, and there were 164 reports of damaging winds. There were fourteen tornadoes in New Jersey, central and eastern New York, and eastern Pennsylvania, and 122 reports of damaging winds. A tornado at Coldenham NY killed nine school children and injured eighteen others, and thunderstorm winds gusted to 100 mph at Malvern PA. Thunderstorms spawned a total of thirty-nine tornadoes east of Great Plains in two days, and there 499 reports of large hail and damaging winds. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
• 2005 - Severe thunderstorms produced over 30 tornadoes in 6 states, resulting in one fatality and at least 35 injuries (Associated Press). Some of the worst damage occurred in Henry county, Tennessee, where numerous homes and businesses were damaged or destroyed.
• 2006 - Strong winds cause severe damage at a skating rink in Montgomery, Alabama where more than 30 preschoolers were playing. Two children suffered injuries but there were no fatalities.

***This is a disclaimer to remove all responsibility on myself if this forecast is wrong.  Being that it is very difficult to predict the weather greater than 48 hours in advance, the odds of needing this disclaimer are about 100%.  However I do believe this forecast will be pretty close to what we can actually look to expect.