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Virginia Forecast:                                                                                        

“It couldn’t happen to a better program”

                                                                        -Bob W.

THE INTRO: 

Well we have good news, and we have bad news.  The good news is that the UVA program is in complete shambles.  And that’s really good news.  The bad news is that this means there is no room for error.  We can not let this game slip away, we can not lose, we have to play flawless football and make sure the Wahoo’s stay down.  Now I’ll admit the good news out weighs the bad in the above paragraph, but the point I want to make is that you can go on the road and lose to a strong program, and still be able to look yourself in the mirror, and in years past there would be no shame losing in Charlottesville, but this year is different.  This is a must have, and this team needs to bring forth a good effort knowing that the pressure is on us, not them.

But I think we can do it.  I mean this UVA team has looked down right terrible.  It has gotten so bad that when I saw the UVA-UConn score I didn’t want to believe it.  Sure it is nice to see our rival lose, but by that much to a Big East Team?  It kind of takes the fun out of it.  It is reminds me of seeing all those Russians lined up for toilet paper after the Cold War, what happened to the cold and calculating goose stepping population that put the fear of God into our country for the past 50 years?  And when you wish bad things upon a general population, and your wish comes true, you actually kind of feel bad about it.  So in a way, I kind of wish UVA could do a little better, but then again, maybe I shouldn’t get ahead of myself.  After all, they are still Russians, and the Wahoo’s are still Wahoo’s.

So as I write this we are looking at a 3-1 record, with Clemson looming on the horizon.  If we can beat the Tigers, and though that is no small task it certainly isn’t beyond the realm of possibility, we will most likely be a top 25 team going to Charlottesville.  This of course will mean that our score will be rolling across every ticker in the country, so a big win here would help the overall perception of the program.  It would also put us at either 4-2 or 5-1, either of which would make a bowl appearance all but a certainty.  So you can see there is a lot on the line other than just beating UVA.  Because if we lose to Clemson and we lose to UVA, then we are looking at 3-3 and will have an uphill battle in order to get into the bowl season. 

But that will all be worked out on the field, what we need to do now is focus on the weather. 

THE HISTORY:

Welcome to October, perhaps one of the greatest sports months of all time (with April coming in a close 2^nd).  Not only is the competition heating up on the college grid iron (move over cupcakes, say hello to the conference schedule), but October is an awesome weather month.  Gone are the Code Red Sunburn warnings, gone is the humidity, now is the time to break out your long sleeve Terps gear and enjoy a nice warm breakfast sandwich while watching your breath.   Oh what a time of year.  Also as I think I point out every year, October is also the driest month of the year in Maryland.  Of course we get just about the same amount of precipitation from month to month here so there isn’t really that much of a difference between a dry month and a wet month per se (we don’t exactly have a monsoon season like they do in India and China), but still the chances of a wash out are lowest this time of year. 

So let’s take a little look at the history for this date.  The Average high in Charlottesville VA on October 4^th is 74F with the record being 94 set in 1941.  The average low for this date in Whoville is 51F with the record being 31 set back in 1974 (that sound you hear are the shutters being opened up on the snow report).  Overall we should be hoping for an average day because quite frankly a high of 74 and a low of 51 is just about as perfect of a day as you can ask for.

THE FORECAST:

For the Clemson game I told you all about the cool website I found and then lost, well I found it again so we can all breath easy (I know that has been J’s only worry this past week).  Anyway to recap, this site give me long range precipitation forecasts which helps supplement the one word forecasts the Farmers Almanac usually gives me.  On this particular day the Almanac is saying that we should see some chilly weather, and the long range precipitation outlook says we have a risk for some rain, but that storm should be hitting on Friday, and not Saturday.  With that in mind I am going to go for a cooler than normal forecast, and hold off on the rain.  So before I give too much more away:

The forecast for the October 4, 2008 “Maryland at Big East Doormat” Game is looking pretty good.  For the high we should see temps in the mid to upper 60’s, we’ll say 67F.  And for the low we should see the mercury dip down into the 40’s, we’ll say 44.  The sky should be mostly sunny with some clouds in the area.  The wind should also be somewhat notable since after all it is fall, but I don’t see any rain for this one.  So to recap, high 67F, low 44F.  Mostly sunny with some clouds and a breeze in the 5-10 mph range.  Overall a pretty good football watching day.

No Advisories for this game, though you may want to have a light jacket depending on the kickoff time. 

The game day sunrise for Charlottesville, VA on October 4, 2008 is 7:12 AM.  And the sunset should be around 6:51 PM.  Again, I don’t have a kickoff time so I don’t know which one of those will come into play, but chances are one of them will, assuming you are tailgating that is.

As for the moon, the moon will rise at 12:35 PM and set at 9:44 PM.  This makes me think we may have a 3:00 start since it seems to me more times than not, the moon likes to come out for the Maryland Football games.  When it does arrive, it will be at it’s first quarter with 25% illumination, that’s a waxing cressant for those who must know.              

THE HURRICANE REPORT:

Not too much more action left for the Hurricane Report, of course as I write this the rain is coming down pretty good from another Atlantic Storm, but it isn’t a Hurricane by definition, in fact it isn’t a Nor’Easter either.  It’s actually just a low pressure system moving on shore, kind of odd.  But I think the Hurricane season is winding down now so I’m not going to put up any serious warning.  We’ll say a 7.  You know now that I think about it, do I really need 50 different scores for this section?  Maybe I should just make it a scale of 1 to 5! 

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THE SNOW REPORT:

Open for the Season!

The record low for this date in Charlottesville is 31F so snow is certainly a possibility, albeit not a realistic possibility.  Any day that can also see a high of 94 historically isn’t a day I’d pack my snow boots for.  

THE X-FACTOR: 

Just to show you some extremes that could happen and have happened on this particular date in weather history.  Check out this Saxby guy in 1869, he must have been the D7 Meteorologist of his time!

• 1777 - The Battle of Germantown was fought in a morning fog that grew more dense with the smoke of battle, causing great confusion. Americans firing at each other contributed to the loss of the battle. (David Ludlum)
• 1869 - A great storm struck New England. The storm reportedly was predicted twelve months in advance by a British officer named Saxby. Heavy rains and high floods plagued all of New England, with strong winds and high tides over New Hampshire and Maine. Canton CT was deluged with 12.35 inches of rain. (David Ludlum)
• 1969 - Denver, CO, received 9.6 inches of snow. October of that year proved to be the coldest and snowiest of record for Denver, with a total snowfall for the month of 31.2 inches. (Weather Channel)
• 1986 - Excessive flooding was reported along the Mississippi River and all over the Midwest, from Ohio to the Milk River in Montana. In some places it was the worst flooding of record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
• 1987 - A storm brought record snows to the northeastern U.S. Snowfall totals ranged up to 21 inches at North Springfield VT. It was the earliest snow of record for some locations. The storm claimed 17 lives in central New York State, injured 332 persons, and in Vermont caused seventeen million dollars damage. The six inch snow at Albany NY was their earliest measurable snow in 117 years of records. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)
• 1987 - Southern California continued to "shake and bake". An earthquake was reported during the morning, the second in a matter of days, and during the afternoon temperatures soared well above 100 degrees. Highs of 100 degrees at San Francisco, and 108 degrees at Los Angeles and Santa Maria, were October records. San Luis Obispo was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon high of 111 degrees. (The National Weather Summary).
• 1988 - Temperatures dipped below freezing in the north central U.S. Five cities in North Dakota and Nebraska reported record low temperatures for the date, including Bismarck ND with a reading of 17 degrees above zero. Low pressure brought snow and sleet to parts of Upper Michigan. (The National Weather Summary)
• 1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the north central U.S., with freezing temperatures reported across much of the area from eastern North Dakota to Michigan and northwest Ohio. Thirteen cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Saint Cloud MN, which was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 19 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

***This is a disclaimer to remove all responsibility on myself if this forecast is wrong.  Being that it is very difficult to predict the weather greater than 48 hours in advance, the odds of needing this disclaimer are about 100%.  However I do believe this forecast will be pretty close to what we can actually look to expect.