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Virginia Tech Forecast:                                                                                        

“Head for the Mountains”

                                                                        -Bob W.

THE INTRO: 

First of all, I guess I need to address a few things.  Again sorry about that NC State Forecast, it will only serve to make me work harder in the future.  Second of all, sorry this is so late, please see the explanation in the NC St Tailgate Recap.  Lets face it, at this point in the week, I can just go to weather.com or something and read the actual forecast, but that won’t be fair.  So in order to maintain some kind of integrity with my long range forecasts, I have not looked at the weather all week.  And for those of you who know me well, you know how difficult this is for me.  People at work ask, “Is it going to rain today?” and I say I don’t know.  Then they reply that “Usually when I ask that question, you not only have an answer but can give the average rainfall amount for that particular day as well as an anecdote of one of the worst weather incidents on that date in history.  Are you OK or do you need to leave early today?”.  So it’s been tough on me. 

But before we get into the weather, I’m kind of glad in a way I haven’t written earlier because I would have missed out on this awesome past “Bye” weekend.  Only in Maryland Football do things actually go better for us when we don’t play (we’ll at least back in my undergrad days that was the case).  But I honestly woke up on Sunday with the same feeling I have after a big win.  This past weekend was HUGE!  Florida State lost to Georgia Tech!  With about 30 seconds to go, FSU was diving into the end zone to take the lead when the ball popped out.  It appeared to be anyone’s fumble but when the Referee signaled that it was Ga Tech’s ball, all of a sudden Maryland was left standing alone in the Atlantic Division. 

I wrote back, or if I didn’t, I meant to, after the UVA loss that this missed opportunity was extremely costly, because basically we now had to win on the road in Va Tech.  Well that loss is still costly because had we indeed shown up that day and everything played out as it has, we’d basically be sitting here with a magic number, not unlike a baseball team at the end of September, and how often do you see that in NCAA Football?  But as it stands now, we are in no position to complain.  We are ranked, we control our destiny, and it’s November.  If you want more than this, we’ll you can probably go to a bigger football school, but if you are a Maryland fan this is all you can ask for at the start of each season. 

With that, we go to the forecast for our first road trip of the season.  Unfortunately not everyone will be going along, but since I am one of those who is, I should probably focus on getting a good forecast together.  So with that in mind let’s see what we have.

THE HISTORY:

As the quote above indicates, we are heading to the mountains for this one.  Whenever we go to Blacksburg, you notice a couple things, first is that the sun sets a little later since we are heading west as well as south, and second the temperatures are a little cooler than they are down on the coastal plain.  That’s what altitude does.  Because of this, the average high in Blacksburg Virginia on November 6^th is 58 F and the average low is 33, yikes!  If that isn’t scary enough, the actual record high in Virginia Tech on this date is only 79 F set back in 1961, and the record low is an eye opening 13 degrees set in 1967.  Take that Hippies!  The kick off is for night so as we sit in Lane Stadium we’ll probably be thinking more about the low than the high.  But it is November football, so what else would you expect…or want for that matter

THE FORECAST:

So here is what we’ve got.  The Farmers Almanac is saying that we should see cold and dry weather for this one, but the precipitation forecast is calling for a transition day, that’s a day between a dry day and a wet day.  Now the precipitation forecast missed pretty big last week, as we all know.  So I should probably put that in the penalty box for now.  With that in mind, we’ll go with cold and dry.  Of course those of you sitting on your couches at home won’t have to worry about the cold, but I guess Brian, Chris, and I will.  Here’s to hats and gloves.  With that, here is what we are looking at:

The forecast for the “Give Heck to Tech” Game is calling for cool and clear weather.  The high which is already plenty cool enough in my book, should be below the average of 58, we’ll go with 50.  The low which will also dip below the freezing point meaning should see the 20’s.  Wow whatever happened to those August forecasts, it seemed like just yesterday I was working on those.  I think the skies will be partly to mostly cloudy and there shouldn’t be any rain, but take that for what it’s worth after last week.  Could be a little breezy, but I don’t think it will be an issue, maybe winds in the 5-10 mph range, but nothing more.  Overall you could do worse this time of year, but it’s a night game in November so we might as well accept that it is going to be cold.  So to recap, High 50F Low 28, no rain and no major breeze, look for clouds, but no rain. 

I am also issuing a Code Red hat, jacket, and gloves alert.  You also may want to load up on wool socks.  This one will without a doubt be our coldest game of the year to date.   

The sunrise for this game is scheduled for 6:51 AM and the sun set is for 5:18 PM.  Damn you Daylights Savings Time!  So if the lots open at 4:00, this means we will almost entirely be tailgating in the dark.    

Only one time to keep in mind for the moon on this day.  The moon will rise at 1:34 PM and not set until Friday morning at some time.  You should be able to see it pretty well.  It will be a half moon, I’ll go with a waxing crescent, it will be just about at 50% illumination. .  

THE HURRICANE REPORT:

This is done, there could be another Atlantic Storm this year, but it won’t be in the Mid-Atlantic.  I now pronouce the Hurricane Report Closed for the season.  This segment has really been a bust, but then again, I guess that’s for the best. 

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THE SNOW REPORT:

We have had snow on this date in Blacksburg, however it was only a trace amount in (no date given unfortunately).  For those who are not fimilar with the term, “Trace” means, in this case, snow fell on this date, but there was not enough of it to cover the ground.  You usually see Trace for snow, more so for rain because it doesn’t take much rainfall to cover the ground.  A lot of this has to do with the temperature.  Warm air holds A LOT more water than cold air.  Think of it this way.  A general rule of thumb is that 1” of rain equals 12” of snow.  In the spring, summer, and fall, getting an inch of rain is not really news worthy, that is because the is warm and can hold a lot of moisture, but in the winter time, for there to be cold air with a lot of moisture it’s extremely rare.  That is why you will never see a foot of snow fall in an hour, but getting an inch of rain in a spring/summer thunderstorm is not out of the ordinary.     

THE X-FACTOR: 

Just to show you some extremes that could happen and have happened on this particular date in weather history. 

• 1951 - Snow fell from the Texas panhandle to the Lower Great Lakes, leaving record totals of 12.5 inches at Saint Louis MO, and 14.1 inches at Springfield MO. Other heavier snowfall totals included 20 inches at Nevada MO, 13.5 inches at Sedan KS, 13 inches at Decature IL, and 10 inches at Alva OK. In the Saint Louis area, up to 20 inches was reported in Washington County. (5th- 6th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
• 1987 - High winds in the northeastern U.S., turning a recent warm spell into a distant memory, gusted to 63 mph at Rhode Island. Squalls resulting from the high winds produced five inches of snow at Marquette MI and seven inches at Rome NY. A storm in the southwestern U.S. brought heavy snow to some of the higher elevations of Arizona, Colorado and Utah. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
• 1988 - A powerful low pressure system over the Great Lakes Region continued to produce snow across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes Region. Snowfall totals along the shore of Lake Superior reached 24 inches, with three feet of snow reported in the Porcupine Mountain area of Upper Michigan. Marquette MI established a November record with 17.3 inches of snow in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
• 1989 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the south central and southeastern U.S. Nine cities from Florida to Oklahoma and Texas reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 80s. The high of 89 degrees at the Dallas/Fort Worth Airport in Texas equalled their record for November. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
• 2005 - Severe thunderstorms produced a deadly tornado near Evansville, Indiana during the early morning hours of November 6. There were 23 fatalities from the tornado, with 19 of the deaths occurring in the Eastbrook Mobile Home Park located just to the southeast of the city (Associated Press). It was Indiana's deadliest tornado since the Super Outbreak on April 3, 1974.

***This is a disclaimer to remove all responsibility on myself if this forecast is wrong.  Being that it is very difficult to predict the weather greater than 48 hours in advance, the odds of needing this disclaimer are about 100%.  However I do believe this forecast will be pretty close to what we can actually look to expect.