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See full size imageJMU Forecast:                                                                                        

“F Duke(s)”

            -Bob W.

THE INTRO: 

Just to show what a great guy I am, I’m GIVING you this forecast despite the fact that I won’t be at the JMU Game. No, not me.  You see I have a sister who is crazy enough to get married during Football Season.  Now I will give her credit, she did pick the one weekend we were playing a Div 1AA (or whatever the hell we call those schools now days).  But still, the Tailgate doesn’t know or doesn’t care who we are playing, all it knows is that it is Saturday in the Fall and D7 should be in the parking lot drinking.  All things considered though, I can live with missing this one.   
 

Not that I am taking this lightly.  I still have scars from last years U of Delaware game.  I mean we should have embarrassed them, and all we did was hold on for a hard fought victory.  Hopefully we can handle JMU a little better, but the Dukes can be just as tough as the Hens.   I think people too often discount the added mental edge these schools get when taking on a BCS school.   
 

Another reason I may not be too disappointed about missing this one is, well it’s the first home tailgate of the year.  Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not happy about missing the first tailgate of the year, it’s the fact that I am happy about missing the HOTTEST tailgate of the year.  The closer we tailgate to August, the worse the conditions.  This year we got a reprieve by being on the road to open the season in what is essentially an indoor game (the high is 72 for SF in early September, you can’t beat that).  Nobody is going to mistake September 12th in College Park for an indoor game.  Now the good news is that the school has finally wised up and moved these early games back to 6:00, so that will help, but still that does put tailgating from noon on, which is needless to say the hottest time of the day. 

THE HISTORY:

The weather for College Park, MD on September 12th is still on the warm side.  The average high is 82 F while the average low is 59 F.  Now the 82 in itself isn’t that bad, but when you are in Byrd Stadium that 82 really gets to you.  The low is actually pretty cool, and hopefully we can stay closer to that end of the temperature scale.  For the records, the record high for the day is 99 (1983).  That type of temperature would be a disaster.  The record low is 40 (1967).  If you read the SF forecast you’d see what a difference there is between the West Coast and East Coast.  For SF the low is only 7 F below the average low, here it is 19 F.   

THE FORECAST:

When it comes to the forecast, I have good news to report.  The Farmers Almanac is saying that we will be seeing lots of clouds the weekend of the 12th.  Lots of clouds and no rain in early September is about as best as you can hope for.  So I’m going to put our highs and lows slightly below normal to reflect the cloud cover, and keep the rain forecast at zero.  
 

The forecast for the “Beat Duke(s)” game is for great early fall weather.  Now it won’t be a Chamber of Commerce Day, but we are focusing on tailgating conditions, and not pure sunshine.  The high I’m going to put at 80 F and the low I’m going to say will be around 63 F.  As I said before, there is no threat of rain for this one, but there will be plenty of cloud cover and this will provide some nice breaks in the high sun.  So to recap, the high will be 80, the low 63, no rain but plenty of clouds.  The wind should be minimal, I’ll say in the 5-10 mph.  Not quite enough to notice.    
 

WHAT TO WEAR:

This will probably be the easiest WTW segment of the season, with each following forecast increasing in difficulty as the fall wears on.  In early September as long as there is no rain, wear shorts.  I would also wear short sleeves for this one.  If you are ultra conservative, maybe check the weather the week of on the off chance you may need to bring along a long sleeve shirt.  
 

SUNSET:Your browser may not support display of this image.

Now we have been blessed with a 6:00 PM kick off for this match up which will be nice.  Though the sun will be up for the opening kick, by half time it will be dark.  The Sun set is actually around 7:20 PM, if you are an early riser, the sunrise will be 6:46 AM.   
 

MOON:  
 

Your browser may not support display of this image. We will have a nice half moon checking on the 12th.  There is no moon rise for this day since the moon will already be up at 12:01 AM and won’t come out again until technically the 13th.  Unfortunately the moon though out, probably won’t be seen since it is scheduled to set at 3:08 PM.  If you could see it, it would be a half moon.   

THE HURRICANE REPORT:

Your browser may not support display of this image. As I write the Hurricane Report on this August day, it appears as though the Atlantic is finally starting to show some life.  In fact by the time this is posted there will probably be a named storm in the Atlantic.  Of course right now it is a lot closer to Africa than it is ACC Terroritory.  And even if it were to make a B-line for College Park, it would probably be over and done with well before the JMU game.   But still, with the increase in activity, the situation bears watching.   
 
 

Your browser may not support display of this image. THE SNOW REPORT:

The Snow report is closed for the season.  Look for it to come back in perhaps November. 

THE X-FACTOR: 

Just to show you some extremes that could happen and have happened on this particular date in weather history.  Brought to you by this weatherforyou.com.

  • 1882 - Hot and dry winds caused tree foliage in eastern Kansas to wither and crumble. (David Ludlum)
  • 1977 - Thunderstorms deluged the Kansas City area with torrential rains in the early morning hours, and then again that evening. Some places were deluged with more than six inches of rain twice that day, with up to 18 inches of rain reported at Independence MO. Flooding claimed the lives of 25 persons. The Country Club Plaza area was hardest hit. 2000 vehicles had to be towed following the storm, 150 of which had to be pulled out of Brush Creek, which runs through the Plaza area. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac)
  • 1979 - Hurricane Frederick smashed into the Mobile Bay area of Alabama packing 132 mph winds. Winds gusts to 145 mph were reported as the eye of the hurricane moved over Dauphin Island AL, just west of Mobile. Frederick produced a fifteen foot storm surge near the mouth of Mobile Bay. The hurricane was the costliest in U.S. history causing 2.3 billion dollars damage. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
  • 1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain which caused flooding in North Carolina, West Virginia, Virginia and Pennsylvania. Parts of Virginia received 3 to 4 inches of rain in just two hours early in the day. Later in the day, three to five inch rains deluged Cumberland County of south central Pennsylvania. Evening thunderstorms produced seven inches of rain at Marysville PA, most of which fell in three hours time. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
  • 1988 - An afternoon tornado spawned a tornado which skipped across northern sections of Indianapolis IN damaging roofs and automobiles. It was the first tornado in central Indiana in September in nearly forty years of records. Hurricane Gilbert plowed across the island of Jamaica, and by the end of the day was headed for the Cayman Islands, packing winds of 125 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
  • 1989 - Snow whitened the mountains and foothills of northeastern Colorado, with eight inches reported at Buckhorn Mountain, west of Fort Collins. Two to three inches fell around Denver, causing great havoc during the evening rush hour. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region between mid afternoon and early the next morning. Thunderstorms produced hail three inches in diameter at Roswell NM, and wind gusts greater than 98 mph at Henryetta OK. Thunderstorms also produced torrential rains, with more than seven inches at Scotland TX, and more than six inches at Yukon OK. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
  • 1989 - Thirty-eight cities in the south central and southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Asheville NC with a reading of 48 degrees, and Victoria TX with a low of 63 degrees. Oklahoma City OK reported a record cool afternoon high of 71 degrees, and the daily high of 64 degrees at Raleigh NC established a record for August. In Arizona, a record sixty-four day streak of 100 degree days at Phoenix came to an end.(The National Weather Summary)

    **This is a disclaimer to remove all responsibility on myself if this forecast is wrong.  Being that it is very difficult to predict the weather greater than 48 hours in advance, the odds of needing this disclaimer are about 100%.  However I do believe this forecast will be pretty close to what we can actually look to expect.