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Recovering from Shell Shock Bob W. 1-14-05
I don’t think there are two many Terp fans that can say they are happy with how the team preformed this last week. Back in November after Maryland embarrassed Memphis we all thought we had something special. We lost at Wisconsin which there is no shame in that, especially since the game went down to the wire. We then beat George Mason only to lose to George Washington in the BB&T classic final. Though hard to fathom, the Colonials DID also defeat Michigan State and seemed to have a little extra bounce in their step that weekend at the MCI center. Following that was the nail biting win over Florida State. Though closer than it should have been, we all agreed any ACC win is a good win. Then came the parade of perennial punching bags who helped fatten up our win total. So Maryland entered this past week with a 9-2 record (1-0), knowing that their toughest challenges still lay ahead.
I won’t rehash what we did or didn’t do against UNC and Wake Forrest. We know how disappointed the team was with both of those games. Deep down most of us knew the Terps would most likely go 0-2 on the week, but the most disappointing aspect was how the team failed to compete. So now Maryland is 9-4 and far from a lock at keeping their NCAA streak intact. It is still too early to panic, but late enough to be concerned. I believe these next 9 days hold the answer to the entire 2004-2005 basketball season.
Let’s look at the next 3 games. We play Temple (5-5), UVA (9-4), and NC State (10-5) all in College Park and all winnable. There are 4 possible outcomes that could occur between now and January 24th.
3-0 Could happen, in fact if you looked at each game individually you could argue that we should win each game. However, being that we have to win all 3 in order to go 3-0 makes it more of a long shot. This record would put us at 12-4 (3-2) and right back in the thick of things. I figure we can lose 7 ACC games and finish 9-7 in the conference and still be all right. This scenario would allow us to safely lose 5 more games with the remaining schedule of @Duke, Ga Tech, @Clemson, @Miami, Va Tech, Duke, @NC State, @ UVA, Clemson, UNC, @ Va Tech.
With 3-0 the “must wins” from here on out are: @Clemson, @ Miami, Va Tech, @UVA, Clemson, and @Va Tech
The “can afford to lose” games are: @Duke, Duke, and @ NC State
And the “tough ones” are: Ga Tech, UNC
2-1 This is probably the most likely scenario, it is hard to see us playing 3 great games in a row. This would hurt but it would not be impossible to come back from. This would put Maryland at 11-5 (2-3 unless Temple is the loss, then 3-2). We could now only lose 4 of the remaining 11 games.
So with a 2-1 record the “must wins” are NOW: @Clemson, @ Miami, Va Tech, @UVA, Clemson, and @Va Tech. Then add in either Duke or @ NC State
The “can afford” to lose games are: @ Duke and either Duke or @ NC State
The “tough ones” are still: Ga Tech, UNC
1-2 This would be the most probable of the disaster scenarios. Not likely, but certainly not out of the realm of possibility. 1-2 would make a winning ACC record extremely difficult. Maryland would then be 10-6 (2-3 unless Temple is the only win, then 1-4). This would put the Terps in a horrible position and only allow Maryland to lose 3 of the remaining ACC games.
The “must wins” would now be: @Clemson, @ Miami, Va Tech, @UVA, Clemson, @ Va Tech. Then take your pick of 2 of these three games: @ Duke, Duke, or @ NC State
The “can afford to lose” games would be: Which ever 1 game we lose between: @ Duke, Duke, or @ NC State
And the “tough ones” once again are still: Ga Tech, and UNC
0-3 We will call this the doomsday scenario. Though the chance of winning none of these games is remote, this team has shown little chemistry as of late. This would give Maryland a 9-7 record and pretty much end any realistic hopes of going to the dance in March. I guess you could think of this scenario as the equivalent of a plain looking girl getting acne and gaining 30 lbs a few weeks before the prom, ain’t no one going to be asking to dance with us. The chances of an ACC winning record would be the same as a 1-2 finish, but the additional bad loss from Temple would really wreck our NCAA resume.
So there you have it, the Maryland basketball season condensed into 9 days. Of course there will be surprises the rest of the way, the games we have no business winning that we win (hopefully) as well as the games we can’t lose that we’ll drop. I think those will wipe each other out in the end and we can look back at this time period as the most important week and a half of the 2004-2005 season.
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