Temple
Forecast:
“I thought
our ‘Bye’ week would never come!”
Chief D-7 Meteorologist Bob Wevodau
UPDATE:
I don’t know if anyone is paying attention but the Weather Desk has improved to 4-1 this year, though I am kicking myself for not issuing a sun burn warning for UVA. Anyway, this years weather has been pretty easy to forecast up to this point, but that changes this weekend. Coming into the Temple game is tough, I basically called for rain during the worst drought the Mid-Atlantic has seen since 2002. October is also the driest month of the year, but sometimes you got to make a stand. Who’s going to read the column every week when I just call for average highs and lows with mostly sunny weather? This isn’t Laguna! Right now the NWS is calling for a high of 61 and a low of 45. D-7 called for a high of 62 and a low of 55, so you can see we are right in the ball park. However, at 7:30 am 10-5-05, Tropical Storm Tammy formed off the east coast of Florida. Where it is heading now is anyones guess, but a lot of models have it coming into the Mid-Atlantic eventually and providing moisture to us by the weekend. If you check the Temple forecast made weeks ago, I even specifically mentioned remnants of a tropical storm on my forecast so if this were to come to fruition, it would be the Weather Desks equivalent of Fluties Hail Mary, or the Cal-Stanford “The Band is on the field!!!” game. As of now we are officially looking for highs in the low 60’s and Lows in the low 50’s with just a chance of showers, but that could all change in the next few days!
Well as we go to press the D-7 weather desk is sitting 2-1 on the year, which
unfortunately is more than the football team can say. Temple, who recently got kicked out of a conference that has been desperate to add additional teams, is in the middle of a nightmarish season and that shouldn’t stop when the Terps get to town. I will hand it to the Owls though, they are not afraid to take on all comers and they have one of the toughest schedules in the nation. The Owls are like the small skinny guy in the bar who has something to prove, so he picks a fight with the biggest guy there just to get his ass kicked and do it all over next Saturday.
Again, no kick off time has been given for this marquee match up, but if I were a gambling man (and I’m not) I would bet on another nooner. That should make the Saturday day trip to Philly fun. Let’s see to get there at 6am we would need to leave Maryland around 4:00am. Don’t see it happening. Anyway, because I am a weather geek, I always get a little excited when I get to do a forecast for a new place, and this weeks exotic location is Phillytown! The average high for October 8 in The City of Brotherly Love is 69 F°, the average low is 52 F°. As you can see we are slipping further and further into fall. The record high for October 8th in Philadelphia is 84 F° set back in 1887, and the record low is a crop killing 32 F° (1964). I think we will end up just slightly below the averages.
The Farmers Almanac forecast for Oct 8 is not pretty. In fact it is downright ugly. They are calling for heavy showers and thunderstorms accompanied by strong winds. This puts me in a tough position. Knowing from the UVA forecast that October is the driest month, I have to decide weather or not I am going to buy into this. The forecast sounds like one of two things, a front coming through, or a tropical system. Based on how active this years tropics have been, the remnants of a storm passing through the Mid-Atlantic isn’t all that unlikely. In fact I am mostly surprised we haven’t gotten more rain from this so far already. So I think I am going to go with the Aggies this week and call for rain.
The forecast for the October 8, 2005 “Show down in Philly Town” game is for crappy weather. The temperatures really won’t be the story of the day as the cloud cover keeps them in check. We will go with a high around 62 and a low around 55. The story will be the rain. Rain sucks but if the temps are in the low 60’s it just makes it that much more miserable. I unfortunately am forced to issue a CODE RED Poncho Alert. For the wind I am calling for blustery conditions that make the 60 degrees seem colder than it is, and drinking games will be nearly impossible (though I don’t think the table will be making the trip). Of course if we don’t get any rain, this will most likely go down as the worst forecast I have ever made. Not much of a win-win situation for the weather desk.
The game day sunrise in Philadelphia, PA on October 8th is 7:04 am (same as the UVA game). The sunset is scheduled for 6:31 pm. The days are growing short. The moon, if we can see it will be up around 12:45pm (or shortly after our most likely noon kickoff) and will stay up (God willing) until 9pm. If you can see it, it will be a waxing crescent (in honor of us waxing Temple) with 27% illumination.
Look here for further updates, as we get closer to game day.
The X-Factor: Just to show you some extremes that could happen and have happened on this particular date in weather history.
- 1871 - Prolonged drought and dessicating winds led to the great Chicago fire, the Peshtigo horror, and the Michigan fire holocaust. Fire destroyed more than seventeen thousand buildings killing more than 200 persons in the city of Chicago, while a fire consumed the town of Peshtigo WI killing more than 1100 persons. In Wisconsin, a million acres of land were burned, and in Michigan, 2.5 million acres were burned killing 200 persons. "Tornadoes of fire" generated by intense heat caused houses to explode in fire, and burned to death scores of persons seeking refuge in open fields. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
- 1901 - A deluge at Galveston, TX, produced nearly twelve inches of rain in about a six hour period. The rains came precisely thirteen months after the day of the famous Galveston hurricane disaster. (David Ludlum)
- 1982 - An unusually early snowstorm hit the northern Black Hills of Wyoming and South Dakota. The storm produced up to 54 inches of snow, and winds as high as 70 mph. The snowfall was very much dependent upon topography. Rapid City, 20 miles away, received just a trace of snow. (The Weather Channel)
- 1987 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the southeastern U.S. Thirty cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Madison WI with a reading of 22 degrees. The low of 28 degrees at Evansville IN was the coolest of record for so early in the season. Hot weather continued in the southwestern U.S. Phoenix AZ reported a record high of 104 degrees and a record tying 116 days of 100 degree weather for the year. Tucson AZ established an all-time record with 72 days of 100 degree weather for the year. (The National Weather Summary)
- 1988 - Snow was reported across parts of northern New England. Two inches blanketed Mount Snow VT. Warm weather continued in the northwestern U.S. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Stampede Pass WA exceeded their previous record for October by seven degrees. (The National Weather Summary)
- 1989 - Morning lows in the 20s were reported from the Northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. International Falls MN and Marquette MI reported record lows of 22 degrees. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in central California as the Oakland Athletics won the American League pennant. San Luis Obispo CA reported a high of 99 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)
***This is a disclaimer to remove all responsibility on myself if this forecast is wrong. Being that it is very difficult to predict the weather greater than 48 hours in advance, the odds of needing this disclaimer are about 100%. However I do believe this forecast will be pretty close to what we can actually look to expect.