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North Carolina Forecast:                                                                                         

 

“Time to get Carolina’s Goat!”

            Chief D-7 Meteorologist Bob Wevodau

 

UNC Forecast Update

 

The update forecast calls for a serving of humble pie to the D-7 Weather Desk.  We weren’t even close on this one (ever notice when I’m right it’s me, but when I’m wrong it’s we?).  There is no chance of rain Saturday, which taken as its own separate piece of information is rather good news, but we were calling for a chance of showers and overcast skies.  To further embarrass our forecast we were calling for a high of 57 and the actual high is going to be 69.  The low is not much better with us projecting a low in the upper 40’s, the actual low should be closer to 40.  Of course this could change in the next few days but as of now this one goes into the loss column.  The silver lining however is that it is actually going to be a pretty nice day in Chapel Hill.   Assuming no drastic changes to the forecast the weather desk will fall to 6-3 on the year. 

 

 

I have no idea what our record will be at this point.  Worse case scenario it will be 4-4 so regardless of the Va Tech and FSU outcomes this game is VERY important for the Terps.  We really need to get to the 6 win mark and it will be neigh on impossible to do that without taking this one from the up and down Tar Heels.  Carolina this year has shown they can be feisty or just plain uninterested.   So the Terps need to be ready for anything come November 12.  This one will be on the road and though I don’t think the full D-7 Contingency will be there, there will be some of us making the trip.  Since I will be one of the ones making the trip, we need to take a good look at the upcoming weather conditions. 

 

As of now, there has been no game time given for this match up.  Unless UNC and Maryland both do something spectacular between now and then, this one should be a nooner or at least an early afternoon affair.  These types of games suck in September and October, but come November they ain’t so bad, at least weather wise.  The average high in Chapel Hill for November 12 is 62 F° and the average low is 38 F°.  So you can see the afternoon warmth maybe more welcome on this occasion.  The record high for this date is 82 F° set back in 1985 (“We are the Bears Shuffling on thru…”), the record low is an alarming 20 F° which occurred in 1957 (Sorry can’t think of a song from that era).  If any record happens I am surely cheering for the high.   

 

The Farmers Almanac for November 12th is calling for rain followed by clearing.  It actually makes that prediction for the period between Nov 12-Nov 14 so unfortunately we are closer to the rain part of the forecast than we are the clearing.  I am pretty optimistic we won’t see anything near to what we have already seen at Temple this year.  In fact I am going to down grade it to a chance of showers instead of calling for a full fledged rain event.  Again my lows have been consistently too low all year, but the highs have been pretty darn close, so I am going to stick with my same predictions for the highs and up the lows a little more.  Since a chance of showers implies cloud cover, the morning should be a little warmer anyway.  So I think we can still pull off a decent day even if we do get spit on a little (By the rain, not the Heels fans, though I guess both could be possible).  So here is what we got:

 

The forecast for the November 12, 2005 “Give’em Heel Bowl” is for so-so weather. The day should start out in the upper 40’s to low 50’s and cloud cover will be the name of the game.  The cloud cover will keep the morning warm, but will also slow up the general warming up process for the rest of the day.  By game time, whether it be 12:00 or 3:30, the temps should be in the mid 50’s maybe topping out at 57 F°.  Unfortunately we here at the weather desk are going to have to issue a code YELLOW poncho warning.  It is only yellow though so even in the worst case scenario the day won’t be a complete wash out.  Winds should be minimal but there could be a couple gusts that may knock over an empty flip cup or two. 

 

The game day sunrise in (Dave) Chapel Hill, NC on November 12th is 6:49 am.  The sunset is scheduled for 5:10 pm.  But hold off on the sun rise and sun set predictions.  The only site I can find does everything off of UTC time, which right now is 4 hours ahead of us, but daylight savings is coming up so that has thrown me for a loss.  The 6:49 sunrise seems to make sense to me, but the 5:10 pm set seems pretty early in my opinion.  As for the moon, it will be a waxing gibbous with 85% illumination.  The moon is schedule to rise at 5:14 PM and set at 3:00 AM but again these times are all F’ed up so I may have to correct those.  Sorry moon watchers.        

 

Look here for further updates, as we get closer to game day.

 

The X-Factor:  Just to show you some extremes that could happen and have happened on this particular date in weather history. 

 

  • 1906 - The mercury soared to 106 degrees at Craftonville, CA, a November record for the U.S. (The Weather Channel)
  • 1959 - Between Noon on the 11th and Noon on the 12th, a winter storm buried Helena, MT, under 21.5 inches of snow, which surpassed their previous 24 hour record by seven inches. (The Weather Channel)
  • 1968 - A severe coastal storm produced high winds and record early snows from Georgia to Maine. Winds reached 90 mph in Massachusetts, and ten inches of snow blanketed interior Maine. (David Ludlum) Bad News for Bix.
  • 1974 - A great Alaska storm in the Bering Sea caused the worst coastal flooding of memory at Nome AK with a tide of 13.2 feet. The flooding caused 12 million dollars damage, however no lives are lost. (David Ludlum)
  • 1987 - Heavy snow spread across much of New England. Totals in Massachusetts ranged up to 14 inches in Plymouth County. The seven inch total at the Logan Airport in Boston was their highest of record for so early in the season, and the 9.7 inch total at Providence RI was a record for November. Roads were clogged with traffic and made impassable as snowplow operators were caught unprepared for the early season snowstorm. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) I am starting to think Bix should make the UNC trip!
  • 1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Bovina MS. Morning thunderstorms drenched Atlanta TX with more than four inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
  • 1989 - Thirty-three cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 70s and 80s from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast Region. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Scottsbluff NE was a record for November, and highs of 76 degrees at Rapid City SD and 81 degrees at Chattanooga TN were the warmest of record for so late in the season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

***This is a disclaimer to remove all responsibility on myself if this forecast is wrong.  Being that it is very difficult to predict the weather greater than 48 hours in advance, the odds of needing this disclaimer are about 100%.  However I do believe this forecast will be pretty close to what we can actually look to expect.