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UVA Forecast

 

“They’re not one of my favorite teams.  We’re two different schools, two different atmospheres, two different types of kids.  There are no shirts and ties and khakis in College Park.  None of us want to wear that type of stuff.”

            -Alex Wujciak

 

The Backdrop:

 I’ve given up on trying to figure out what is going to happen this season.  It is very obvious we do not know from one week to the next what team is going to show up on Saturday.  And you what, UVA fans are probably saying the same thing right now.  Unfortunately though UVA seems to be trending up coming off a drilling of Indiana (I know, not exactly a Football Powerhouse, but who are we kidding neither are we right now).  Meanwhile our win over Clemson never seemed so far away. 

 Speaking of which, Clemson faces Wake Forest this weekend if I’m not mistaken.  A win by the Tigers and us, and the Terps could make things once again interesting, but a Wake drubbing of CU could also really drive home how unimpressive that Clemson win really was.  So assuming all goes well in College Park, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to keep an eye on that one.

 Anyway, the only thing harder to predict than the Terps is the weather.  How I lucked into a non-paying gig that requires me to do both is beyond me, but here we are.  And just like the Terps, though I may be inexperienced and over-matched, I refuse to give in.  So let’s take a look at the weather.  I hate to be the barer of bad news, but you might not want to read the following.

 The History:

 The average high on October 17th in College Park, Maryland is 68 F and the average low is 45 F.  The 68 F, well take a good look at it, because that is the closest you are going to come to a 68 F forecast.  The 45 F?  Well go back to the first sentence and erase the word “average” and replace it with probable.  Then cross out “Low” and replace it with High.  Yep it may very well be that bad.  Anyway, speaking bad, the record low for this day is 33 F (so long growing season) which occurred in 1982.  The record high, which we’ll be about 40 F shy of is 83 set back in 1958.      

 The Forecast:

 This isn’t going to be pretty.  Per weather.com the forecast for College Park this Saturday is for a high of…gulp 46 F.  Now if you are a “Glass is half full kind of guy” the low is only forecasted to be 4 degrees cooler than the high.  Of course that makes it 42 F.  And if that isn’t bad enough, there is a chance of showers all day.  Now I will say that things could change, but the way things are going, don’t expect too much.  Yesterday there was a 30% chance of rain.  Today they are calling it a 40% chance, in fact I saw on one site a 70% chance.  So as the forecast starts to solidify, it only seems to be getting worse.  The good news is that all the UVA tailgaters will have rain water in the wine glasses. 

 The Warnings:

Let’s double up the warnings for this one.  We are going with a code Orange Cold Weather gear, and a code Orange wet weather gear.  Or if you want to combine the two lets make it a code Red Cold/Wet weather gear day.  You may not need both, but you’ll definitely need at least one.  Again, I’m only the messenger on this. 

 The Fashion Forecast: 

I’m saying you’ll need at least jeans, definitely a sweatshirt.  Possibly gloves, definitely a poncho or rain coat.  Hell, just bring everything you have that is water proof and warm. 

 The Sun and Moon:

 As hard as it is to imagine, we actually got a nice start time for Homecoming.  Though a 4 pm start doesn’t seem like a night game it actually is.  The sun is going to set at 6:35 PM which will be about the end of the 3rd quarter, maybe early 4th.  The sunrise, which luckily won’t affect our 10 am tailgate start is at 7:19 AM.  Another factoid for this day is that there will actually be 12 hours of visible daylight this Saturday.  Not 12 hours of sun, but 12 hours exactly of light (when you factor in the time before dawn and right after dark).     

 The moon will be MIA on this day (sorry to break the news to all you moon lovers).  Assuming it wasn’t raining, and assuming you could see a new moon, it will rise at 6:40 AM and set at 5:46 PM.    

 On this Date in Weather History: 

  • 1781 - General Cornwallis attempted to escape encirclement by crossing York River, "but a violent storm arose" dispersing his boats causing him to ask for an armistice. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
  • 1910 - A hurricane made a loop off the southwest coast of Florida. Winds above 100 mph were reported at Fort Myers FL, and the barometric pressure at Sand Key reached 28.40 inches. (David Ludlum)
  • 1950 - Small but powerful Hurricane King struck Miami, FL. The hurricane packs winded to 122 mph, with gusts to 150 mph. Hurricane King then moved up the Florida peninsula to Georgia. Four persons were killed and damage was 28 million dollars. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
  • 1971 - Great balls of fire were observed just ahead of a tornado moving down the main street of Wray CO. However, little other electrical activity accompanied the storm. Nine persons were injured in the tornado, all at a trailer court at the edge of town. (The Weather Channel)
  • 1984 - A snowstorm struck northern Utah producing a record 18 inches in 24 hours at Salt Lake City, and 40 inches at the nearby Alta Ski Resort. The town of Magna, located ten miles west of Salt Lake City, did not receive any snow at all. The storm was responsible for a fifty vehicle pile-up along Interstate 15 near Farmington UT. (Storm Data)
  • 1987 - It was a great day for an Oktoberfest, or to enjoy the colors of autumn, as much of the nation enjoyed sunny and mild weather. Columbia SC dipped to 34 degrees, marking their third morning in a row of record cold. Bakersfield CA reached 80 degrees for the 143rd day in a row to break a record established in 1940. (The National Weather Summary)
  • 1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Lower Ohio Valley. Severe thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes in Indiana, including one which injured four persons. Strong thunderstorm winds at Connerville IND caused three million dollars damage. Thunderstorms in Illinois produced hail two inches in diameter Colfax. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
  • 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms representing the remnants of Hurricane Jerry deluged southeast Kentucky with four to six inches of rain in 18 to 24 hours, resulting in widespread flash flooding. Flooding resulted in more than five million dollars damage. Temperatures again warmed into the 80s and lower 90s in the southeastern U.S. Lakeland FL and Orlando FL reported record highs of 95 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)